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Cost-push inflation

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Cost-push inflation발음듣기

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In the last two videos, we explored situations where the aggregate demand curve shifted to the right and that caused inflation.발음듣기

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That's actually called demand-pull inflation.발음듣기

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What I want to do in this video is study a situation where the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts to the left and that causes inflation.발음듣기

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And that's called cost-push inflation.발음듣기

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So let's just start off with our standard graph.발음듣기

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So this is aggregate prices. This is real aggregate productivity. Real GDP right here.발음듣기

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I'm going to focus things on the short run.발음듣기

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Aggregate demand right over here. That is our aggregate demand curve.발음듣기

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Aggregate supply in the short-run.발음듣기

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This is what we're going to focus on, might look something like that.발음듣기

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So this is aggregate supply in the short-run.발음듣기

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And this is our current level of prices.발음듣기

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And the reason why I draw aggregate supply in the short-run as this curve that keeps getting steeper and steeper.발음듣기

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Or if you think in algebraic terms, the slope keeps getting larger and larger as you go to the right.발음듣기

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One way to think about it is: if the real GDP is down here and maybe performing well below potential, there is a lot of excess capacity in the economy: excess labor capacity, excess factory capacity.발음듣기

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So if you want more productivity out of that economy, people aren't going to demand much more.발음듣기

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Prices won't have to go up more.발음듣기

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There's a lot of slack in the economy.발음듣기

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While as GDP gets higher and higher, maybe even going beyond its potential, starts to get overheated and in order for people to get very high levels of utilization.발음듣기

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Essentially get more people to enter the labor market, work longer hours, work overtime, the prices are going to essentially have to go up.발음듣기

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So over here, for some increment in GDP, prices don't have to go up so much.발음듣기

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So you have a lower slope than over here.발음듣기

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For that same increment in GDP, prices have to go up dramatically.발음듣기

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With that out of the way, let's think about what would happen if the aggregate supply curve were to shift to the left.발음듣기

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We can also think about "Why would it shift to the left?"발음듣기

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So let's just shift it to the left.발음듣기

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It might look something like that.발음듣기

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At any given point, I try to shift it to the left.발음듣기

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You see a new equilibrium price and equilibrium GDP.발음듣기

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This is the old equilibrium price and the old equilibrium GDP.발음듣기

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This is the new equilibrium price and the new equilibrium GDP.발음듣기

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You see, you definitely had inflation.발음듣기

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Price went up, but this is worse, depending on how you view things.발음듣기

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But generally, this is worse than demand-pull inflation.발음듣기

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Because at least with demand-pull inflation, you had inflation happening, but real GDP increased more as things get overheated.발음듣기

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Prices went up, but your GDP actually contracts.발음듣기

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This is a situation where you might have heard the word before: this is stagflation.발음듣기

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Inflation with stagnation. So this is stagflation.발음듣기

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There's two very notable examples of this in recent US history.발음듣기

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In 1973, you had the Arab oil embargo.발음듣기

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It was apparently due in response to the US support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War.발음듣기

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So you had the 1973 oil embargo.발음듣기

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In 1979, you have your revolution in Iran.발음듣기

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Iran was a major oil producer then.발음듣기

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It continues to be, but it was particularly so in 1979.발음듣기

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So, during all the chaos, during the revolution, Iran's oil productivity dropped dramatically.발음듣기

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So you had an oil crisis.발음듣기

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The reason why oil crises would shift the curve to the left...발음듣기

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In both of these situations, the supply of oil drops dramatically.발음듣기

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So if the supply of oil, and this is kind of a micro-phenomenon, if the supply of something drops dramatically, the price of that thing is going to go up dramatically.발음듣기

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And in the 70's, oil was an even bigger part of the economy than it is now.발음듣기

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You probably remember if you were around in the 70's.발음듣기

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Very very large cars that had very bad gas mileage.발음듣기

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Other uses of oil were also much less efficient in the 1970s.발음듣기

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So it was a big input into the US economy.발음듣기

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If all of a sudden, a major input's price becomes much more expensive, you could view it as one of two ways: For a given level of productivity, suppliers will want to charge more.발음듣기

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If you want me to deliver to your house, if you want me to run a truck, so for a given level of productivity, suppliers will charge more.발음듣기

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Or you could view that at a given level of price, suppliers will want to produce less.발음듣기

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So at a given price, say this price over here, a supplier will want to produce less.발음듣기

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Because they are not getting as much real profit.발음듣기

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So you could view it as a shift to the left.발음듣기

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Or you could even view it at a given level of productivity, if you want to produce at that level, you're going to have to pay me more so I can offset my price increases.발음듣기