China keeps peg but diversifies holdings

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China keeps peg but diversifies holdings발음듣기

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We know the US is running a relatively large deficit relative to China in 2009.발음듣기

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We imported 260 billion more than we exported to China and we know from the last two videos that the way, the way the China is keeping their currency from appreciating because of this trade imbalance is that they are going out there printing money and using that Yuan to buy Dollar assets.발음듣기

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And we see over here in (2006), (2007), (2008) major increase in US assets.발음듣기

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But what's little bit more interesting is 2009 we didn't have a huge increase.발음듣기

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Its pretty large by any standard but not large enough to offset the actual trade imbalance.발음듣기

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So how did China keep its currency pegged.발음듣기

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Even better, lets actually look at ...발음듣기

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Becausethis isn't just the Chinese government.발음듣기

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These are just ownership of US assets by Chinese nationals.발음듣기

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We can actually look at the major foreign holders of treasury securities. this actually comes from the Treasury's own website and it tells us how much different Central Banks are, how many treasury securities they are actually holding.발음듣기

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You can see China is the biggest holder.발음듣기

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It is the biggest holder If you go to November of 2009 it has 929 billion dollars.발음듣기

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This is the Peoples Bank of China has 929 billion dollars worth of US treasuries.발음듣기

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But whats interesting here it is the largest holder but as we go from November of 2009 to November of 2010, their holdings actually went down not by a ton. they are still right around 900 billion but they went down.발음듣기

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So given the fact that we have this trade deficit, given the fact they want to peg their currency and they want to print money and go buy other people's assets, how did this happen.발음듣기

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How did the number of treasuries actually go down.발음듣기

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And actually how did they were able to reduce the amount of all US assets that they bought Now the treasury answer is they don't have to just buy treasuries. they could buy other US assets.발음듣기

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But you go over here we saw they didn‘t buy a ton of other US assets and a clue to what's happening here and this isn't exactly what necessarily happening, it is far more complicated than I can explain in one video.발음듣기

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But we do see other countries whose US treasury holdings are increasing dramatically over the course of 2010.발음듣기

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In particular you see the United Kingdom.발음듣기

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You see the United Kingdom.발음듣기

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Their holdings have grown from 155 billion to 500 billion over the course of 2010 and this is relative.발음듣기

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United Kingdom does not have a significant trade imbalance one way or the other with the United States and we actually see, we actually see that its currency really didn't change much over the course of 2010.발음듣기

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It‘s been about, it’s been about the same and this looks more dramatic than it really is.발음듣기

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So the answer and it could be much more complicated, and this is that China has decided to somewhat diversify from buying US treasuries, and in particular US assets.발음듣기

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And maybe they are diversifying to the pound sterling maybe they are diversifying to the Euro and so they'll start buying, they'll start buying, say, British assets.발음듣기

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But the British don't want their currency to appreciate too much because then they will suffer a trade consequences.발음듣기

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Their goods will be too expensive and so the British Central Bank will then want to, maybe, so that their currency does not appreciate relative to the dollar - they'll want to go and buy american assets.발음듣기

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And that's what it looks like its actually happening.발음듣기

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And maybe one other small point is that the Chinese government has slowly allowed its currency to appreciate but the appreciation isn't as dramatic as this chart makes it look.발음듣기

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This is 6.8 Yuan to the dollar at the beginning of 2010 to about 6.6.발음듣기

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We are not getting close to zero here. This is just from 6.8 to 6.6.발음듣기

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But over the last several years they have slowly been allowing their currency to appreciate but what's really happening is that they are diversifying away from dollar assets.발음듣기

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When they buy those other currencies those people are going to wanna buy dollar assets to keep their currencies from moving too much.발음듣기

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