Housing Price Conundrum (part 3)발음듣기
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Housing Price Conundrum (part 3)
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출처 : 칸아카데미
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Actually I should really say, from 2000 to 2006, because that really was when the housing bubble happened.발음듣기
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Because we saw from that New York Times article that people's incomes weren't increasing, and the population wasn't increasing anywhere near as fast to soak up the supply.발음듣기
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So all it did is allow people who were renting before, and who couldn't save the money for the down payment, now to participate.발음듣기
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And that loan officer at the bank, he's going to be giving the bank's money for your house, right?발음듣기
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This is me. And so that loan officer at the bank, he really cares that they're not going to lose money on the transaction.발음듣기
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If he's going to give you $1 million, he wants to make sure that no matter what happens, if you lose your job, if you get arrested, if you skip town, that he's still going to be able to get his $1 million back.발음듣기
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And if you go back to our equity and balance sheet presentations, that's why, back in the day, they made sure that you put 20%, 25% down payment on your house, that you had a good credit rating, that you had a good steady income.발음듣기
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What happened - started to happen the mid-90s, especially in California, and then nationwide in about 2001, 2002 - is you had what we call a securitization of the mortgage market.발음듣기
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And this, in all fairness, this actually happened a while before, with things like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.발음듣기
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So Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were these entities that might buy the loan from your local banker.발음듣기
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What you had happen in the late '90s, and especially in the early part of this decade, is you had a whole industry outside of the government-sponsored entities.발음듣기
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And this is essentially - instead of you going to your local bank for a loan - this is me again - I would go to my local mortgage broker.발음듣기
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So times a million, right? They'll give home loans to a million people, put them all together.발음듣기
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And then Bear Stearns will package a bunch of these mortgages together, essentially IOU's from people.발음듣기
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So essentially, instead of Countrywide being responsible for my loan, my payments now go to these investors.발음듣기
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But you should watch the videos on mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, if you want to get a better understanding of exactly how the money flows go.발음듣기
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And in return for that, that Countrywide mortgage broker will just get a fixed fee for doing that transaction.발음듣기
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And then Bear Stearns will package a bunch of these mortgages up - and now it's going to be in the billions - and then repackage them and sell them to investors.발음듣기
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And let's say if the interest rates, if I'm paying 7%, and the other million people are paying 7%, the investors are going to get 7% on their money.발음듣기
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And of course the investors would care that the money that they're essentially giving - because they're giving money to the investment bankers who are giving money to Countrywide.발음듣기
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The only reason why the investors would give their money, is if they have a lot of confidence that these are really good loans.발음듣기
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And what they say is, well, they'll look at this big package of mortgages, these million mortgages that Bear Stearns has packaged together.발음듣기
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These investors, they don't know who actually borrowed the money, or what kind of credit rating they had, or anything.발음듣기
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They're like, this is great, with very little risk I'm getting a pretty good return on my money.발음듣기
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But Countrywide would say, well, we're already giving mortgages to all the people who qualify.발음듣기
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So in order to actually find more people who want mortgages from us, we'll just have to lower the standards a little bit.발음듣기
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Right? And we can lower the standards, because we find even when we do lower the standards, no one's defaulting on their mortgages.발음듣기
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So Countrywide will issue even more mortgages, and give them to these investors with even lower standards.발음듣기
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And then they give the mortgage to the investment banker, which packages them up and then sells them to investors.발음듣기
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They just love doing the transactions, because they get more and more money every time they do the transactions.발음듣기
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And for the moment, the investors seem pretty happy, because they keep giving money into this system, so to speak.발음듣기
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Even though they might be reading the newspaper and seeing that the standards are going down.발음듣기
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And because the defaults were very low over this time period and I'll explain in the next video why the defaults were very low - they felt that they were getting a good return, maybe 6% or 7%, on investments that had very, very low risk.발음듣기
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