Introduction to inflation

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Introduction to inflation발음듣기

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When economists refer to inflation today, they are referring to a general increase in the level of prices of goods and services.발음듣기

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So they're really talking about price inflation.발음듣기

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The reason why I stress that is because sometimes, especially when the term "inflation" first came into usage, it actually was referring to monetary inflation, or an increase in the money supply.발음듣기

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These two ideas are closely related.발음듣기

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But it's important to realize that people really are measuring inflation.발음듣기

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When they're talking about inflation today, they're talking about price inflation.발음듣기

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Because although these two things are related, they aren't always exactly the same thing.발음듣기

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It is generally true that if the money supply - and the money supply is more than just the amount of dollars that are printed.발음듣기

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It's affected by the amount of lending that's occurring, it's affected by the number of transactions that are occurring in the economy.발음듣기

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And if that money supply that's affected by all of those things grows faster than the total real productivity of the economy, then it will generally increase the level of prices.발음듣기

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But especially in the short-term, there could be other causes of price inflation.발음듣기

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You could have things like "supply shocks."발음듣기

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And a supply shock is the supply of something becomes scarce all of a sudden.발음듣기

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And the most typical example of a "supply shock" is the oil crisis in the 1970's.발음듣기

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If for whatever reason oil becomes scarce in a country like the United States, then the price of oil and gas would go up.발음듣기

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But then, these are inputs into a whole set of things.발음듣기

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Even that banana that you buy at the grocery store.발음듣기

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If the price of oil or gas or both of them, frankly, were to shoot up, even the price of your banana would shoot up.발음듣기

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Because to get that banana to your store, you need to use some gasoline.발음듣기

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In fact a significant fraction of that banana in that store would probably include the cost of the gasoline to operate that ship to take that banana from wherever it was grown to your grocery store, and then on a railroad, and then on a truck or whatever.발음듣기

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So this would affect the general prices, not just the prices of oil or gas.발음듣기

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So these two things are related, but it is important to realize that people are referring to price inflation.발음듣기

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And the general consensus is, a little bit of it is a good thing.발음듣기

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So, a little is good. And I want to stress little is good.발음듣기

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And we're talking 1, 2, maybe 3 per cent per year.발음듣기

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But anything larger than that gets a little scary because it can kind of snowball on itself.발음듣기

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But we'll talk about that in future videos when we talk about hyperinflation.발음듣기

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And economists are also afraid of inflation if it were to ever get negative.발음듣기

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That leads to "deflation" and we'll talk in future videos why in many circles that is viewed as a scary thing.발음듣기

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Now, in the United States, the inflation is measured with the "consumer price index." CPI You'll always hear this reported in the news especially if you watch some of the business programming.발음듣기

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And there are actually multiple consumer price indices.발음듣기

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And the one that people report whenever they say the "CPI" went up 2%", they are actually referring to the CPI-U.발음듣기

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And the U here stands for urban consumers.발음듣기

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And the reason why this is the headline CPI, or the one that people actually report, is because most of the country the United States, are urban consumers.발음듣기

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So this is the CPI that affects the largest number of peoples' pocketbooks.발음듣기

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And the way that it's calculated is, it's like the deflator, it's a price index, and like the deflator it's measuring a general increase or a general change in the level of prices.발음듣기

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But they actually are calculated in slightly different ways.발음듣기

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Although they should be close to each other if they really are indices for measuring the general level of prices.발음듣기

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So the way that the CPI works is that they take a basket of goods for this type of consumer in a base year.발음듣기

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So they'll pick a base year.발음듣기

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And let's take a super simple example, a ridiculously simple example.발음듣기

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Let's say, in our little country, the urban consumer - so we'll focus on CPI-U - only consumes two things.발음듣기

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In the next video we'll see that in reality we consume many more than two things but two things, and they spend 60% of their money on apples and they spend 40% of their money on bananas.발음듣기

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And in that base year we just set the base price of apples at a 100 and of bananas at a 100.발음듣기

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We're not saying that apples and bananas cost the same thing.발음듣기

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We're saying that we're spending 60% of our money on apples, 40% on bananas in that base year and that this is just that base year level of prices.발음듣기

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What will matter is how much this grew, what will this index change as we go to whatever year we want to calculate the inflation in, relative to this base year.발음듣기

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So let's say in our current year, could be the very next year, and we're going to assume the same ways, that we're spending 60% on apples and 40% on bananas, in our current year, the apple index has grown 50% to 150,발음듣기

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so it is plus 50%, and let's say that the banana index has grown to 180, so bananas have gotten even more expensive. Plus 80%.발음듣기

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So how would we measure, how much would we say the CPI-U has grown?발음듣기

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Well, we would take a weighted average of these indices, or you could say a weighted average of the growth, you could do it either way, so let's do this either way to give you the same result.발음듣기

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So, in this year, our base index is 0.6 times a hundred, plus 0.4 times a hundred, and this will just come out to a hundred, this is 60 plus 40, this is equal to 100, as it should.발음듣기

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That is our base for our index.발음듣기

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Now over here, in our current year, so this is what we're transitioning to, there's a couple of ways to do it, you could say "Look, we're spending 60% on something that has gone up to 150 now".발음듣기

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So we'd say 0.6 times 150 and then we'd say plus 0.4 times 180, and that gets us to, let me get my calculator out, so that gets us 0.6 times 150 plus 0.4 times 180.발음듣기

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So that gets us to 162.발음듣기

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So if we look at this basket, and this is an overly simplified basket, we have increased from 100 to 162.발음듣기

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Or you could say this is +62%.발음듣기

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And you would have gotten the same result if you took the weighted average of the percentages, if you took 0.6 times 50% plus 0.4 times 80%, we can do that in our head, 0.6 times 50% is going to be 30% and then 0.4 times 80% is going to be 32%.발음듣기

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30 plus 32 gives us 62% growth.발음듣기

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If for this basket of goods, which we're assuming is I guess for this urban consumer, from our base year to the current year.발음듣기

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In the next video we will look at what the basket of goods actually looks like In the United States for an actual urban consumer.발음듣기

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