Severe contango generally bearish

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Severe contango generally bearish발음듣기

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Voiceover: Now that we know what a trader means when they say that a market is in contango.발음듣기

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Let's think about whether it would be a bullish or a bearish signal for prices in that commodity.발음듣기

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So, as I mentioned in the last video, it's actually normal for things to have a contango because it takes into account the opportunity cost of the cash and the storage cost for that commodity.발음듣기

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So, if something is kind of in a, in a reasonable contango you really can't make a call on it one way or the other whether it's bullish or bearish.발음듣기

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It's really just something that you would expect.발음듣기

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What's not as usual is a severe contango.발음듣기

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Severe contango.발음듣기

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And that's when the current spot price is a lot lower than the future's price or the forward price.발음듣기

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And in that situation as we've mentioned in the last video it's because that there's perceived to be a big glut in the market.발음듣기

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There's a surplus on the spot market or maybe there's a perceived shortage at some point in the future.발음듣기

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And in general this is perceived although once again, you can't just look at one simple signal and be able to you know, bet your life savings on the direction of the market.발음듣기

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It's a very quick way to lose your money but the general view is, is that a severe contango is a bearish signal.발음듣기

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Is a bearish signal for the future price of that commodity and the reason why it's perceived to be bearish is because if you have this huge discrepancy all someone has to do is buy a bunch of oil today.발음듣기

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We assume that these are oil prices.발음듣기

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So, buy a bunch of oil today for cheap.발음듣기

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Store it and once again, we're assuming this is severe contango.발음듣기

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So this, it won't cost a $100 a barrel to store this, this oil for a year and then we agree to sell it for $150.발음듣기

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So, we agree, agree to sell it and assuming the storage cost is less than $100 we're going to guarantee some money.발음듣기

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So, if you have a bunch of people doing this, buying on the spot market it will increase demand on the spot market, raise prices there but for the future's market, there's a bunch of people who are now agreeing to sell in the future.발음듣기

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So it's going to lower, it's going to increase the supply on the selling side of the future's contract so to lower the future's prices.발음듣기

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So, in general severe contango is bearish for the future's price.발음듣기

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