Futures fair value in the pre-market

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Futures fair value in the pre-market발음듣기

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[Voiceover] The fair value of a futures contract is the price of the contract at which a buyer of the stock would be neutral between buying it on in an actual stock exchange and actually buying the stock and agreeing to buy the futures contract.발음듣기

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Or a seller of the stock would be neutral between selling it right now in the actual exchange versus agreeing to go short or agreeing to be on the selling side for a futures contract.발음듣기

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The fair value attends to be quoted for the front month or the next expiring futures contract.발음듣기

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Next expiring futures contract.발음듣기

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To see how this works, why someone would be neutral between say, buying something now for a $100 and agreeing to buy it maybe next month at a $102, think of it this way.발음듣기

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If they want to just hold that stock a month, or two, or three from now, they could pay a $100 right now or they could take their $100 so they could either just buy it right now or they could stick it maybe in the money market account.발음듣기

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They could get some interest for the next few weeks and then they could buy the futures contract.발음듣기

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If they got interest of $2, if they kept that $100 say in a money market account for the next, until the actual contract date for that futures contract they'd be neutral.발음듣기

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I could spend a $100 today or I could put a $100 in a money market account, get $2 in interest and I'm not going to worry about the dividends right now.발음듣기

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If a dividend happens then, obviously you would want to pay less for this thing where you didn't get the dividend.발음듣기

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Assuming no dividends, you say well or I'd be willing to pay a $102 for that.발음듣기

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If this was only a $101, if the price of the futures contract was a $101, then you say, "Wait, if the price of the futures contract is a $101, I would rather put my money in a money market account, get $2 of interest."발음듣기

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'"And buy it in a month for a $101."발음듣기

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I'll essentially get an extra dollar if I do that.발음듣기

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If the price is at a $103, you say, "Well gee, if I want to hold that stock a month or two from now. I'm way better buying it right now."발음듣기

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Or another way to think about it if the price is at a $103 and I'm a seller of the stock.발음듣기

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Instead of selling it today for a $100, let's say I really need a $100 right now.발음듣기

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I'm better off borrowing a $100 right now.발음듣기

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Paying maybe $2 in interest and then selling it a month later for a $103.발음듣기

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The fair value is the price which a buyer or seller is neutral between buying and selling the stock or entering into a futures contract.발음듣기

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I'm going to go a little bit more detail in the next video but it's main use is an indicator of what's likely to happen once a market opens and that's because futures markets trade have much longer trading hours, sometimes 24 hours than traditional stock markets.발음듣기

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If you could imagine, if the price of a futures contract is trading below its fair value, the only reason why that would happen is if a lot of people are actually expecting, once the market opens that the stock price is going to go down.발음듣기

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