Cupcake economics 2발음듣기
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Cupcake economics 2
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In the last video we talked a little bit about, at least potentially, starting a cupcake factory.발음듣기
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But this is a major investment that I'm thinking about making, so at minimum, I made a spreadsheet here in Excel and it's available at khanacademy.org/ downloads/cupcakes.xls.발음듣기
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If you just click slash here, you'll see everything in the download directory, but I'm going to start putting more stuff there.발음듣기
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But this is essentially - it'll do all the math for us that we did in the last video, --the investment in the factory.발음듣기
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Let's say in the real world, once I actually got bids from contractors and things like that, it ends up costing $1.1 million.발음듣기
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Now that I have a computer doing the math for me, I can deal with a little bit funnier numbers.발음듣기
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In this scenario, this is the income statement, at least as far as we get to the operating income line.발음듣기
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If I change the number of cupcakes, let's see, if instead of a million, I sell five 500,000, it calculates everything accordingly.발음듣기
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So it's 50% utilization and then, my return on asset is my operating income divided by my initial investment, right?발음듣기
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So in the last one, I touched on a little bit that the real lever that I, as the owner of my cupcake factory, can change is price.발음듣기
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And then, obviously, if I charge a lower price more people are going to want to buy my cupcakes and if I charge a higher price, fewer people.발음듣기
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Although, there are some things that when you charge a higher price people think it must be better so maybe they want it, or they want to show off to their friends, and look at this expensive cupcake that I eat, and it's kind of a status symbol.발음듣기
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And now we can actually figure out under what combinations am I going to make certain amounts of money.발음듣기
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So if I charge $1.50 per cupcake and I'm only able to sell 500,000 cupcakes, I'm going to take a loss per year of $275,000.발음듣기
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If I sell them for $1.75 and if I sell, I don't know, 700,000 cupcakes, I'm almost at break-even.발음듣기
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And, if you're in high school or in middle school, this could actually be a fun - I don't know if they allow this type of thing for science projects.발음듣기
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And actually, if you watch the probability videos, I do all those things on [UNINTELLIGIBLE] processes and things like that.발음듣기
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You can analyze the business and do Excel spreadsheets and you'll probably end up winning soon. the state science fair.발음듣기
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So essentially my operating profit divided by my initial investment, depending on the different prices I might charge and the different quantities.발음듣기
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And here it's kind of hard to visualize, so I graphed it as a three dimensional surface. 3D.발음듣기
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So as you see here, if I charge $2.80 and I only sell 300,000, then this is my return on asset right here.발음듣기
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Everything here is in the negative, right, according to the legend, minus 50% to zero percent return.발음듣기
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If I charge $1.60 per cupcake and I only sell 400,000 cupcakes, I'm going to have a negative return.발음듣기
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And it actually shows you that it's a fairly interesting and sophisticated thing, that you have these two variables that change.발음듣기
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You can only imagine what happens when you start varying the other parameters, but these are the two big ones.발음듣기
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And by the way, I've also learned from the cigarette companies and I put nicotine in my cupcake, so I think people will become addicted to it.발음듣기
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And a lot of people would be happy with that, but I'm like, hey, I'm leaving money on the table because I'm selling out of my cupcakes.발음듣기
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So it makes sense for me to see if there's any - maybe there's some people who want cupcakes, who can't get them because I can't produce that many.발음듣기
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There's maybe 50,000 thousand people in the margin who said, hey, you know, I'd buy it at $1.85 but I'm not willing to buy it at $2.발음듣기
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Even though I'm selling fewer cupcakes, because I'm charging so much more per cupcake, and I'm making a 37% return.발음듣기
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So that's all good and I'm driving a Bentley and I have the biggest house on a hill in town and all of that.발음듣기
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This is a better return on investment than the stock market or anything else that I know of.발음듣기
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But then Imran - and just if you're curious why I wasn't recording videos for the last two weeks, actually Imran is the name of my son and he came into the world two weeks ago, and so, I think it makes sense to name a cupcake store after him.발음듣기
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But let's say he comes in, and he's like, I'm tired of getting an allowance from dad; I also want to produce cupcakes.발음듣기
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And he actually has more money because his grandma gave him more money because she likes him more than her son.발음듣기
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And so he has $1.5 million to invest because he's like, wow, this is such a good investment, let me put more money into it. $1.5 million.발음듣기
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And also, it's a more efficient factory, so it actually uses a little less electricity, and wastes less cream and frosting, and, I guess, nicotine as well.발음듣기
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And when he charges $2.90 per - everyone just kind of runs to him, because his cupcakes are just as good.발음듣기
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And so, to benefit them - these guys aren't going to go anywhere else --I'm going to raise my prices a little bit.발음듣기
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And just when this Imran comes in, and he enters into the space, all of a sudden, what is the return?발음듣기
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But his return on asset has gone down to 20 - and, because he's at that utilization, his return on asset has gone down to 20%.발음듣기
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When someone is doing really well and getting a really great return, it attracts competition.발음듣기
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And if there's enough demand to satiate that new capacity, maybe they will get a better return.발음듣기
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But in general, over time, if there's a very favorable return, more and more competition will enter the market.발음듣기
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