Housing conundrum (part 4)발음듣기
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I'll now explain to you why, from 2000 to 2005, we had very low defaults on mortgages.발음듣기
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Let's say that I buy a house for $1 million.발음듣기
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I buy a $1 million house.발음듣기
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So let's say the bank gives me $1 million.발음듣기
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And then I'm willing to pay a percentage on it.발음듣기
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So this is from the bank.발음듣기
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And I use that to buy a house.발음듣기
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I don't know if these diagrams help you.발음듣기
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But you get the general idea.발음듣기
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And the bank does that.발음듣기
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And let's say, I don't know, a year later I lose my job.발음듣기
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I just can't pay this mortgage anymore.발음듣기
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So I have a couple of options.발음듣기
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I can either sell the house and pay off the debt, or I guess I could just tell the bank, well I can't do anything, and I'm going to foreclose.발음듣기
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And that would ruin my credit.발음듣기
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It would hurt my credit.발음듣기
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And I would lose all my down payment.발음듣기
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So what are the circumstances that I can sell the house?발음듣기
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Well, if I borrowed $1 million, as long as - and let's say I didn't put any money down, just for simplicity.발음듣기
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If I can sell the house for $1.1 million, well I would do it, right?발음듣기
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Let me sell for $1.1 million.발음듣기
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If I sell for $1.1 million, I pay the bank - let me switch colors.발음듣기
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I pay the bank $1 million, and I net $100,000.발음듣기
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And everyone's happy.발음듣기
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The bank got their money back, so they didn't lose any money on the transaction.발음듣기
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And so the whole reason why this worked out, even though maybe I was a credit risk, is because the housing prices went up.발음듣기
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So when you have rising housing prices, the banks will not lose money lending you.발음듣기
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Because if you can't pay, you just give back the house, the bank can sell it.발음듣기
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Or, you won't even give back the house.발음듣기
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You'll sell the house and you'll pay it off, even though you can't pay the mortgage anymore.발음듣기
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The only situation where I would foreclose is if the market price of the house goes less than my loan.발음듣기
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And that's actually the situation that we're facing now.발음듣기
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So if, let's say that I can only sell this house for $900,000.발음듣기
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Well, then I'm just going to give the keys back to the bank.발음듣기
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That's actually called jingle mail, because you just mail the keys back.발음듣기
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And then the bank sells the house for $900,000.발음듣기
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And then they would take a loss.발음듣기
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So when housing prices go down, that's the only situation where really you should have foreclosure.발음듣기
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When housing prices soon. go up, the person who borrowed it is just going to sell the house and pay off the loan.발음듣기
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And they are actually probably going to make some money.발음듣기
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So there was every incentive to buy a house.발음듣기
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So let's think about this whole dynamic over the last several videos that we've been building.발음듣기
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So we said, from 2000 to 2004 housing prices went up.발음듣기
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Let me do it like this.발음듣기
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Let me change it a little bit.발음듣기
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We can even say, from 2000 to 2006.발음듣기
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So we know that housing prices went up.발음듣기
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And why did why did housing prices go up?발음듣기
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Well, we saw the data.발음듣기
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It wasn't because people were earning more.발음듣기
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It wasn't because the unemployment rate went down.발음듣기
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It wasn't because the population increased.발음듣기
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It wasn't because the supply of houses were limited.발음듣기
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We disproved all that.발음듣기
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We realize it was just because financing got easier.발음듣기
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The standards for getting a loan went lower and lower.발음듣기
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Financing got easier and easier.발음듣기
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And because housing prices went up, what did that cause?발음듣기
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We just said when housing prices go up, default rates go down.발음듣기
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You could give a loan to someone who's a complete deadbeat.발음듣기
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But as long as housing prices go up, if they lose their job, they can still sell that house and pay you back the loan.발음듣기
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So housing prices going up makes sure there's no foreclosure, so defaults go down.발음듣기
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So then the perceived risk goes down, of lending.발음듣기
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Perceived lending risk goes down.발음듣기
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So that makes more people willing to lend.발음듣기
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And the corollary of more people willing to lend, is you that the actual standards go down.발음듣기
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That's financing easier.발음듣기
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We could actually write that.발음듣기
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Standards go down.발음듣기
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So you had this whole - I guess you could argue whether this is a negative or a positive cycle.발음듣기
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But you had this whole cycle occurring from the late '90s, but especially, it really got a lot of momentum at around 2001, 2002, 2003.발음듣기
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That financing got easier, despite the fact that people were earning less, population wasn't increasing that fast, that there were all of these new houses.발음듣기
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And that caused housing prices to go up.발음듣기
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Housing prices went up, then we had a lot fewer people defaulting on their loans.발음듣기
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No one would default on their loans if they could sell it for more than the loan.발음듣기
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Then a lot more people said, well these are super safe.발음듣기
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And so the ratings agencies, Standard and Poor's and Moody's, were willing to give AAA ratings to more and more, what I would argue, are risky loans.발음듣기
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So the perceived lending risk went down.발음듣기
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Then more and more people liked this asset class.발음듣기
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They said, wow, this is great.발음듣기
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I can get a better return than I can get in a bank, or in Treasuries, or in a whole set of securities, even though these are very low-risk or perceived low-risk.발음듣기
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So I want to funnel more and more money in here.발음듣기
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And so the mortgage brokers and the investment banks said great, the only way we can get more volume to satisfy all these people who want to lend money - the only way we can find more people to lend money to, is by lowering the standards.발음듣기
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And this cycle went round and round and round.발음듣기
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And it really started because this whole process of being able to take a bunch of people's mortgages together, package them up, and then turn them into securities and then sell them to a bunch of investors - this was a quote-unquote innovation in the mid-'90s, or early '90s.발음듣기
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I forgot exactly when.발음듣기
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And it really started to take steam in the early part of this decade.발음듣기
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So that's essentially why housing prices went up.발음듣기
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And why kind of all of this silliness happened.발음듣기
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And in the next video, I'll talk a little bit more about maybe who some of these investors were.발음듣기
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And I'll tell you what a common hedge fund technique.발음듣기
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And I think it's very important not to group all hedge funds together.발음듣기
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There are some good ones.발음듣기
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But what a common hedge fund technique was, to take advantage of this virtual cycle, to make the hedge fund founders very wealthy.발음듣기
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I'll see you soon.발음듣기
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