Geithner plan 4발음듣기
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Geithner plan 4
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Let's try to construct a situation where I participate in the new Treasury Public Private Program.발음듣기
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And I get all of the upside I would have gotten in a traditional just straight up investment in these toxic securities.발음듣기
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And so just as a review, what the program entails is that if I want to make an investment in something.발음듣기
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And then the remainder, the equity, is going to be split half, or 50-50, between myself and the Treasury.발음듣기
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Is that the upside, if this thing is worth more than 100, it's split between the Treasury and the private investor.발음듣기
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But how could we use this program to get the same upside we would have otherwise gotten, if we had just bought the toxic security outright?발음듣기
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So let's say that the toxic security, in a before-this program world that Geithner has come up with.발음듣기
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That's obvious. Now what I can do is, instead of just, with this plan - I mean, before I would have to take my $30 that I have in the bank, and use it to buy some asset, if one of these banks were willing to sell it to me.발음듣기
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And then put the rest of the cash away essentially safe, so that my worst case is that I just lose what I invest. So let's do that.발음듣기
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And using this $4.50 in the plan, I'll show you that I'll get all of the upside that I got if I had originally had to use all $30 by myself.발음듣기
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My downside is limited to the $4.50, because I'm still going to have the $25.50 in cash on the side.발음듣기
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And this is going to be 15% of the total equity, so the debt that the Fed will lend me is going to be $51.발음듣기
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And I did the math before I did the video, but you could work it out yourself. $51 loan from the Fed.발음듣기
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If someone was willing to sell me one, I guess we could say one of the units, or one of the securities for $30, now with $60, we can buy two of the units.발음듣기
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So in order to set up a situation where I get all of the upside that I would have gotten with a $30 security, I essentially have to set up a configuration where we buy twice as many securities.발음듣기
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I buy twice as many securities, and then I split the upside 50-50 with the Treasury, then I'm just going to get the upside.발음듣기
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Yeah, let's say that the eventual value of the security, let's say it's worth - I'm going to make a bunch of numbers up.발음듣기
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So if each of these is worth $10, then the whole asset side of this balance sheet is worth $20, and once again, the Fed is going to take a $31 hit.발음듣기
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$25.50. If these securities are worth $20, then this whole asset side is worth $40, because there's going to be two of them.발음듣기
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If each of these are worth $40, then we have $80 on the left-hand side of the balance sheet.발음듣기
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So my total investment is going to be the cash that I put aside - so that's, let's say, $25.50.발음듣기
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And now in all of these upside scenarios, we're going to see that I get the value of the actual security.발음듣기
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When we pay something in the market, we're hoping we're buying it for less than its real value, but we really don't know 100% what the eventual value is.발음듣기
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So we figured out if it's 0, 10, 20, all the way really up to - The value of my investment is going to be - I didn't have to draw this stuff down here - let's say that this is $24.50.발음듣기
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If these assets are worth anything more combined than $51, then we start to have value to the equity.발음듣기
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And I'll show you that what they're giving us is essentially insurance, or a put option for free.발음듣기
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Now, you might say that it's handing it to the investor, but if because of this the investor overpays for the asset, that subsidy is really going to the person selling the asset.발음듣기
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But the equity's actually worth something above $25.50, but we're still taking a slight loss.발음듣기
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But the cool thing is, if we are the private investor here, even if the thing is worth very little, we don't take that much of a loss here.발음듣기
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And this is much better. What would the payoff diagram have looked like if we were just a straight-up investor?발음듣기
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If the asset is worth 0, we would have been worth - well, these lines were supposed to be on top of each other.발음듣기
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In the next video, I'm going to actually analyze what that subsidy or what that insurance or that option that the government is giving us, what it might be worth.발음듣기
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And then we could think about whether now people are willing to actually overpay for these things.발음듣기
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