Bailout 7: Bank goes into bankruptcy발음듣기
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So the example of the bank we've been studying, we're actually kind of doing it in real time.발음듣기
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And I was doing this on the fly.발음듣기
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We actually showed how this bank got quote-unquote bailed out.발음듣기
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And it got bailed out by the sovereign wealth fund.발음듣기
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Because when this last piece of debt came due, it couldn't sell its CDOs for enough money to pay off that debt.발음듣기
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So they just kind of held fast and didn't sell their CDOs.발음듣기
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They couldn't get any other loans to pay off this loan.발음듣기
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But what they were able to do is to convince some foreigners who were enamored by the brand of this institution of American capitalism.발음듣기
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So they were willing to buy some shares in this company and essentially bail it out.발음듣기
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So in the example, we used to have 500 million shares.발음듣기
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The company issued another 2 billion shares.발음듣기
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Sold them at $1.50 per share.발음듣기
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And they got $3 billion for it.발음듣기
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And so then you had $3 billion in cash.발음듣기
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We had $1 billion before, so now we had $4 billion.발음듣기
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We could pay off the loan with $3 billion of the cash and then we're left with $1 billion.발음듣기
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And now this company would have, if you have $1 billion in cash and $4 billion of CDOs, it would think that it has $5 billion of assets.발음듣기
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If these are really worth $4 billion.발음듣기
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It has no liabilities, so it has $5 billion of equity.발음듣기
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Notice the equity doesn't change.발음듣기
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When you take some of your assets and you get the value of the assets that you think they're worth and you pay off some liabilities, it doesn't change the value of your equity.발음듣기
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But what's happened now?발음듣기
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This is just to get comfortable with some of this terminology.발음듣기
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This company now is completely delivered.발음듣기
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Because it has no liabilities, it has no debt, and its assets are equal to its equity.발음듣기
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And you'll find that lot of companies that are startups and technology companies, a lot of those have very little debt.발음듣기
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And so they're completely delivered.발음듣기
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Anyway, that was just an aside.발음듣기
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But this was an example of how a company could get bailed out.발음듣기
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And who lost here?발음듣기
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Well the shareholders lost.발음듣기
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Because before, there was only 500 million shares that split up the equity.발음듣기
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And now there's 2.5 billion shares to split this equity.발음듣기
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So the book value of the shares, if you eve believe that these are really worth $4 billion, they went from $4 to $2.발음듣기
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And I think this is an important aside here.발음듣기
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Because I've mentioned before that the market price when you buy or sell a share, it's just transacting between another person who used to be holding that share.발음듣기
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So how does it affect the company?발음듣기
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Well it affects the company when the company needs to raise more money.발음듣기
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And that's what happened in this example.발음듣기
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The company had to raise more money.발음듣기
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It had to go to, maybe it was the government of Singapore's sovereign wealth fund.발음듣기
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And they say, government of Singapore, please invest in us, buy some of our shares.발음듣기
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And when the government of Singapore, or any investor, wants to buy new shares, they use the market value, what that stock is trading at, as a good reference point for what you might have to pay for those shares.발음듣기
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Oftentimes if it's kind of a desperate situation and this person is kind of saving you, they'll pay below the market price.발음듣기
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But sometimes, if they say, oh, this is a lucky opportunity to get such a large number of shares and essentially take control of the company, I might be a little premium over it.발음듣기
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So I'll pay $2 per share, which is a little bit of premium over the market value at the time, which was $1.발음듣기
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But anyway, that's why the market price of something in the secondary markets, where a share is just trading between people who aren't related to the company, why that's important.발음듣기
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Because when the company needs to raise money, that is used as kind of the fair market value of a company's shares.발음듣기
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But anyway, this was the situation where the company gets bailed out.발음듣기
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But what happens in a situation where it doesn't get bailed out?발음듣기
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Let's say that the sovereign wealth fund never happened.발음듣기
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Let me clear this.발음듣기
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So the assets, we had $1 billion in cash.발음듣기
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And we have these $4 billion of CDOs.발음듣기
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For a total of $5 billion.발음듣기
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The liabilities, we had Loan C, it's coming due for $3 billion.발음듣기
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And then you had the equity, which is essentially the total assets minus the liability.발음듣기
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So that's $2 billion.발음듣기
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And that's split amongst 500 million shares.발음듣기
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And that tells you that the book value per share is $4.발음듣기
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We're not going to worry right now what the market value of the shares are.발음듣기
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So let's say they shop everything around.발음듣기
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All of these sovereign wealth funds, they've got burned, because they invested in Citibank last year and the stock just continued to plummet.발음듣기
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They invested in Merrill Lynch, all of these they invested in and it just continued to plummet.발음듣기
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So they've been burned.발음듣기
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They don't want to be the last guy holding the potato.발음듣기
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So there's no-one who's willing to invest equity.발음듣기
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So it just forces the issue.발음듣기
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These people, Loan C, they say, we're not going to give you a new loan, you can't pay this loan, because even if you sold these CDOs, you're only getting a $1 for them.발음듣기
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So we are going to force you into bankruptcy.발음듣기
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And that's how bankruptcy happens.발음듣기
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When you break one of the - they call it the covenants - with one of the people who lent you money.발음듣기
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The covenants say, if you don't pay a loan within this amount of time or some other thing happens to your financials, you are then declared insolvent and you go into bankruptcy.발음듣기
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And what happens in bankruptcy?발음듣기
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Well, in bankruptcy, the bankruptcy courts takes receivership of all of your assets.발음듣기
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They just say, OK this is what you own.발음듣기
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And we're not going to go into the details now.발음듣기
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Maybe I'll do a whole series of videos on the details of bankruptcy.발음듣기
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You might get some type of loan that helps you just continue to do business.발음듣기
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Because people have to figure out, are they just going to restructure your liabilities?발음듣기
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Or are they just going to dissolve you?발음듣기
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Because you're not a viable entity anymore.발음듣기
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But anyway, the bankruptcy court will take hold of you.발음듣기
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And let's assume that they're going to dissolve you.발음듣기
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They will then split you amongst the stakeholders, the people who you owe money to.발음듣기
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Actually, let's not say that they dissolve you.발음듣기
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Let's say that everyone agrees that this brand is worth a lot.발음듣기
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Whatever we call it, Goldman Lynch or Lehman Sachs.발음듣기
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Whatever our brand is, it's worth a lot.발음듣기
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No-one wants to see it disappear.발음듣기
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So what happens when you go into bankruptcy?발음듣기
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Well, the creditors get first dibs on everything.발음듣기
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So one way to think of it is Loan C gets first dibs on the assets.발음듣기
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And then anything that's left over goes to the equity holders.발음듣기
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So let's say the Loan C guys, they say we want to keep this bank as an ongoing entity.발음듣기
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But what we want to do is we just want to dump these CDOs.발음듣기
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So the bankruptcy court, OK we'll liquidate these CDOs just because everyone agrees that they're really shady.발음듣기
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So they sell them and they only get $1 billion for them.발음듣기
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So now we have $2 billion of assets.발음듣기
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It's essentially $2 billion in cash.발음듣기
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That's all that there is.발음듣기
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Plus there's probably some buildings in all that.발음듣기
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Which we're not listing here.발음듣기
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But there's the brand and all that.발음듣기
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So this guy is owed $3 billion.발음듣기
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So he says, OK fine, you know what I'm going to do?발음듣기
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I'm going to keep this company running.발음듣기
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I'm owed $2 billion.발음듣기
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I'm going to keep that $2 billion in there.발음듣기
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But what I get is essentially all of the new shares of the company.발음듣기
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So what essentially the bankruptcy court is going to do, they're going to create a new corporate entity.발음듣기
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They're going to put all of these assets into it.발음듣기
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And then issue another 100 million shares.발음듣기
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So they essentially create a new entity, where the new entity has $2 billion of assets, $2 billion of cash.발음듣기
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And let's say it has no debt.발음듣기
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Or actually maybe these people, they say we'll even give you some money - no, I don't want to confuse things.발음듣기
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So let's say that you have no debt.발음듣기
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So you have $2 billion of equity.발음듣기
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And let's say that there are 100 million shares.발음듣기
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So the book value of the new shares is $20 per share.발음듣기
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And you might say, wow that's great.발음듣기
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Someone could have gotten these shares for whatever I said they were trading for before.발음듣기
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They could've gotten them for $1 per share before, now they are worth $20 per share.발음듣기
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But no, that's not the case.발음듣기
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It's actually horrible.발음듣기
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These shares, the shares of the old company are worth zero.발음듣기
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Because when you liquidated the company, or at least when you tried to value the company, we didn't liquidate it.발음듣기
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Because we're saying we still want the company to continue its operations.발음듣기
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But we're saying that the value of the company is only $2 billion.발음듣기
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This guy is owed $3 billion.발음듣기
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So he says, you know what?발음듣기
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I should get the whole company.발음듣기
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And I'm still getting not everything that I deserve.발음듣기
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But I'm going to get the whole company.발음듣기
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So essentially, whoever lent Loan C, all of these shares are now their shares.발음듣기
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And the equity holders get wiped out, the old equity holders.발음듣기
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So those shares go to zero.발음듣기
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So this is an interesting example, because I've seen people on CNBC say, oh what a great deal, I could buy shares of Lehman Brothers for $1.발음듣기
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But that's not the case.발음듣기
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They'll say Lehman Brothers has all of these assets and it's never going to completely disappear.발음듣기
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That might be true to some degree.발음듣기
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But Lehman Brothers' assets might be greater than its liabilities, which means that its equity is actually worth negative.발음듣기
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So that $1 isn't a great deal.발음듣기
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If you really thought that Lehman Brothers in the long term was going to come back, what you might want to do is somehow try to become one of its bondholders.발음듣기
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And then when it goes through bankruptcy, on the other side of the bankruptcy you might end up in shares of the new bank, whatever it's called.발음듣기
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Goldman Brothers or whatever.발음듣기
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Anyway, I realize I'm out of time.발음듣기
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In the next video I'm going to put it all together and show you, one, why our financial system is freezing.발음듣기
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And, two, what the government's bailout is attempting to do.발음듣기
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See you in the next video.발음듣기
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