참여번역 : 어학사전

The fiscal cliff발음듣기

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There's been a lot of talk lately about the fiscal cliff, which sounds very dramatic.발음듣기

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And what I want to do in this video is at least lay out the numbers so that we're all on the same page.발음듣기

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And then the next few videos, think about the implications or how the negotiations between the president and Congress might actually work out.발음듣기

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So the first thing to frame this conversation is just where the budget is right now.발음듣기

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And so let me draw a little graph.발음듣기

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So let me make this axis right over here represent our budget.발음듣기

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I want to make it as big as possible so that we can get a little bit of granular detail on how much the budget might move based on how the negotiations work out.발음듣기

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So let's say that this line is roughly $4 trillion long.발음듣기

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So that's $4 trillion, and halfway would be about $2 trillion.발음듣기

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And then in between two and four, you've got $3 trillion.발음듣기

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And then $1 trillion would be right over here, $1 trillion.발음듣기

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And then I'm going to do some bar charts to show the different scenarios.발음듣기

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And as I do this, keep in mind the size of the US economy.발음듣기

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The US economy is approximately $15.5 trillion.발음듣기

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So that is roughly our GDP, depends on which year you're measuring.발음듣기

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But that gives us at least a frame of reference for what chunk of GDP we are talking about when we talk about the federal budget.발음듣기

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So let's start with the 2012.발음듣기

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Let's start with the 2012 budget.발음듣기

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So in 2012, the US government is spending $3.6 trillion.발음듣기

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So let me make my graph a little bit more granular.발음듣기

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So this would be 3.5.발음듣기

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So 3.6 is going to be right around here.발음듣기

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So let me draw that.발음듣기

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And I'll do it in this purple color for the expenditures.발음듣기

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So this is how much the federal government spent or I guess is spending in 2012.발음듣기

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So just like that.발음듣기

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All right, there we go.발음듣기

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So that's expenditures.발음듣기

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Now you are probably aware that we don't have all of the revenue.발음듣기

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We didn't bring in the $3.6 trillion in taxes.발음듣기

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So this right over here is $3.6 trillion.발음듣기

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Our revenue that we get through tax revenue and other things is somewhat less.발음듣기

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It, in 2012, was on the order of $2.5 trillion.발음듣기

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So I'll draw that right over here.발음듣기

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So $2.5 trillion.발음듣기

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I'll do it in this green color.발음듣기

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So this is how much revenue was brought in.발음듣기

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So let me write this down.발음듣기

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This is $2.5 trillion.발음듣기

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Now let's think about how much might get spent under the different scenarios.발음듣기

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So first I'll lay out a rough approximation of Obama's budget proposal for 2013.발음듣기

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So Obama in 2013.발음듣기

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So on the spending side, he sees, or he would like to see, spending go up by $200 billion.발음듣기

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So let's see this.발음듣기

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So on the spending side, we're going to add $200 billion.발음듣기

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And the next few videos, we could talk about the pros and cons, the arguments for and against something like that.발음듣기

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So let me draw that.발음듣기

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So relative to the 3.6, we're now that 3.8.발음듣기

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So you have a spending increase of - so plus $200 billion.발음듣기

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That gets us to 3.8 billion in total expenditures.발음듣기

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If my best estimate of what the Republicans in Congress would want.발음듣기

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So let's write.발음듣기

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Let's say, a Republicans in 2013 is that they would actually ideally want spending cuts from these levels.발음듣기

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So let's draw that out.발음듣기

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And roughly on the order of about $100 billion.발음듣기

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So roughly on the order of $100 billion.발음듣기

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They might even want more than that, but let's just go with that for now.발음듣기

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So that gets us to a budget of $3.5 trillion.발음듣기

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That's about that right over there. $3.5 trillion.발음듣기

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So once again, relative to 2012, you're going down by $100 billion.발음듣기

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Let me make clear.발음듣기

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You're subtracting $100 billion.발음듣기

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Now in the fiscal cliff scenario, the spending will be similar to the Republican ideal right over here.발음듣기

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So let me write this over here. Fiscal cliff.발음듣기

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We are also spending.발음듣기

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We are cutting on the order of $100 billion in government expenditures.발음듣기

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So let's draw that.발음듣기

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So at least on the expenditure side.발음듣기

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And these are all very rough.발음듣기

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I'm sure the Republicans who would agree and disagree with this.발음듣기

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But I'm trying to get my best sense of kind of an aggregate view on things.발음듣기

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So the fiscal cliff.발음듣기

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We are also cutting spending by $100 billion.발음듣기

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Now let's go to the revenue side of things.발음듣기

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In all of these scenarios for 2013, and just to be clear, the fiscal cliff that's also for 2013.발음듣기

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And all of these scenarios, we get the same revenue that we got in 2012.발음듣기

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So let me draw that.발음듣기

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Plus we get about another $100 billion from the growth in the economy.발음듣기

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As the economy grows, and even if your tax rates are held completely constant, you're going to get more revenue for the federal government.발음듣기

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You get about $100 billion from the federal government.발음듣기

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And so that gets us to $2.6 trillion without changing anything.발음듣기

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So let me just shade all of these in really fast.발음듣기

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So shade that one in.발음듣기

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Shade that one in.발음듣기

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And then, shade that one in.발음듣기

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Now, as you've probably heard on the news, Obama would like to extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle class.발음듣기

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And he considers a middle class of those who are making less than $250,000 for a family.발음듣기

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But he would like to not extend the Bush tax cuts on the rich.발음듣기

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And he would like to actually include a few other tax increases, also on the wealthy.발음듣기

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And so you would get an increase of revenue under Obama's plan of $300 billion.발음듣기

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This is once again, very rough.발음듣기

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Probably $50, $60 billion that I'm not fully accounting for, but it'll give you the rough picture.발음듣기

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So this is $300 billion.발음듣기

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And what Obama's doing here, or what at least in the proposal, as far as I can believe, none of this is that simple.발음듣기

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What they're talking about right over here is extend tax cuts for middle class, which my best reading, seems like we would lose a little under $200 billion of revenue.발음듣기

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But then we keep the tax cuts or we let the tax cuts on the wealthy expire.발음듣기

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So that gets us 200 of this.발음듣기

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And then there are other tax increases and another removing loopholes and whatever else they increase this to $300 billion.발음듣기

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So let's compare the deficit.발음듣기

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So this gets us to, in the Obama scenario, we end up with $2.9 trillion in revenue.발음듣기

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So let's compare what the deficit did from 2012 to Obama's budget plan.발음듣기

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So in 2012, if you take $3.6 trillion, subtract out $2.5 trillion, there is a gap $1.1 trillion.발음듣기

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This is the deficit.발음듣기

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This is how much the government has to borrow in 2012.발음듣기

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Under Obama's budget, what would it be for 2013?발음듣기

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Well we're spending $3.8 trillion.발음듣기

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We are getting a $2.9 trillion.발음듣기

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So you have a gap of $900 billion.발음듣기

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So there is some of the deficit reduction, although the deficit is still quite large.발음듣기

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The deficit reduction is $200 billion.발음듣기

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$100 billion of that came from the economic growth.발음듣기

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And then, the rest is coming from, or a good chunk of that, is coming from increased taxes.발음듣기

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Depending on how you view it, either increase taxes on the wealthy or not letting the tax cuts expire on the wealthy.발음듣기

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Now let's think about the Republican situation.발음듣기

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Well, you have $2.6 trillion in revenue.발음듣기

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And you have $3.5 trillion.발음듣기

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Let me write this down.발음듣기

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And once again, you have on the order of a $900 billion gap.발음듣기

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So in terms of deficit reduction, these things look pretty similar.발음듣기

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You have a very similar deficit.발음듣기

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Obama is increasing spending.발음듣기

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And he would argue that he's investing in things that might help stimulate the economy, or invest in America for the future.발음듣기

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And then he's making it up by letting the tax cuts on the wealthy expire for the most part.발음듣기

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The Republicans want to cut spending.발음듣기

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But they're also letting the tax cuts continue.발음듣기

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So you essentially have the same level of deficit reduction.발음듣기

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Now I think we are ready to talk about the fiscal cliff.발음듣기

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The fiscal cliff, we're spending hundreds billion less.발음듣기

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And then we are also letting all of the tax cuts for both the wealthy, those who are earning at a family level more than 250,000.발음듣기

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And for the middle class, we're letting them all expire.발음듣기

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And so you have the revenue increase by $400 billion.발음듣기

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So this goes up by $400 billion.발음듣기

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And so that takes us roughly, once again, this is all rough, to about $3 trillion in revenue and $3.5 trillion in expenses.발음듣기

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And so your deficit, under the fiscal cliff scenario, the deficit is going to be $500 billion.발음듣기

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Now you might say, hey, this is great.발음듣기

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Everyone talks about the deficit.발음듣기

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The deficit is a scary thing.발음듣기

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We are borrowing from the future and all that.발음듣기

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Why are people so afraid of the fiscal cliff?발음듣기

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The reality is that if you take $500 billion out of the economy.발음듣기

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So $100 billion through spending cuts and then $400 billion from tax increases.발음듣기

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So the government is deleveraging.발음듣기

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But that money's being sucked out of the economy.발음듣기

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And you could argue that there's just kind of a multiplier effect as well, that might endanger what's already a very precarious risk of recovery.발음듣기

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That the recovery is really just starting to happen.발음듣기

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And if we were to suck all of this money out of the economy, that's what the argument would be, then that might throw us into another recession.발음듣기

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Or that might make the recovery that much weaker.발음듣기

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In the next few videos, we'll discuss that in a little bit more depth.발음듣기

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See what people are saying the impact might be.발음듣기

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And what the arguments might be in either case.발음듣기

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참여번역

The fiscal cliff

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