Balance of payments: Capital account

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Balance of payments: Capital account발음듣기

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In the last video, we started to explore the payments that could flow into a country or out of a country.발음듣기

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And now I want to continue it more.발음듣기

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In particular, we focused on the current account last time.발음듣기

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And that focused on things like trade, exports and imports, income earned from assets in another country, or income that someone from outside of the country earns from assets in the country that we're studying, or just transfers that are happening.발음듣기

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Now when we look at the capital account, in this video right over here - and I wrote capital accounts, there shouldn't be an s right there, when we look at the capital account, we look at other ways or other reasons why we might have inflows or outflows of payments.발음듣기

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And in particular, the capital account is focused on that the change in assets that either foreigners own of, in this case, the US, or that US nationals own of assets that are someplace else.발음듣기

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And this little triangle right over here, that is the Greek letter delta, just shorthand for change in.발음듣기

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So once again, let's focus first on the inflows.발음듣기

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And when you're talking about change in assets, these would essentially be someone outside the US buying assets inside the US from someone that was not foreign.발음듣기

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So for example, if I am a home builder, I'm an American citizen, I'm a home builder, I build a home in the US.발음듣기

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And then I sell it, for a million dollars to a Mexican national, maybe for their vacation home.발음듣기

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That means that for just that transaction there has been an increase in foreign ownership of US assets, that million dollar home.발음듣기

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And so this number would be increased by a million dollars.발음듣기

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And so that's why it's an inflow, because when they bought that house they would have had to make a payment to me.발음듣기

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And this right over here - I have a bunch of stuff written over here - change in foreign owned assets in US.발음듣기

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And it also includes financial derivatives there, you don't have to worry too much about that.발음듣기

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And it also has change in foreign reserves.발음듣기

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The one way to think about the difference between that and that right over there, this is you could view this as privately owned changes in ownership.발음듣기

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And this is by essentially official changes in ownership by either the government or the Central Banks of foreign countries.발음듣기

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And for a lot of countries they're essentially one and the same thing.발음듣기

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In the US, they kind of maintain this pseudo-independence.발음듣기

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But this is official, you could kind of view this as official government ownership.발음듣기

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And this right over here is, for the most part, private ownership.발음듣기

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And once again, if someone in England were to come into the US and buy, let's say buy a share of IBM from an American, then that would increase this number right over here.발음듣기

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But if the Central Bank of China decided to buy a US government bond from an American then this right over here, would increase.발음듣기

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But they're both the general idea.발음듣기

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Someone buys an asset.발음듣기

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We're not talking about the income on the asset.발음듣기

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We're talking about the asset itself.발음듣기

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Someone buys an asset from, or changes hands from and American national to a foreign national, then these numbers would increase and those foreign nationals would have to make a payment into the US.발음듣기

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So once again, these are inflows right over here.발음듣기

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Now we take the other side of that coin.발음듣기

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If I were to go out and buy a vacation home in Italy, and let's say I buy it from an Italian, then I would have to make a payment to them.발음듣기

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So that would be an outflow from the US.발음듣기

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And I would get an asset in Italy, in exchange for it, my vacation home.발음듣기

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And so this number right over here would increase.발음듣기

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But once again, I wrote over here in orange because it is an outflow.발음듣기

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I'm making a payment to a foreign national.발음듣기

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And this once again, this is a breakdown between - this is really the private sector for the most part.발음듣기

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And this over here is the US Federal Reserve.발음듣기

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So if the US Federal Reserve were to go and buy an asset from a foreign government bank or individual, let's say a foreign bond, than this number right over here would increase.발음듣기

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And actually, the way I've classified right over here, government purchases, not the US Federal Reserve, but the US government actually still falls into this category, just the way I set up the numbers.발음듣기

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This right over here is the Federal Reserve alone.발음듣기

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Now with that of the way, let's actually figure out whether we're running a capital account deficit or a surplus.발음듣기

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So let's get our calculator back.발음듣기

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Let me get it and I'll put it right over here so we can see our numbers.발음듣기

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And so let's think about the inflow.발음듣기

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So this is how much more foreigners are buying of US stuff.발음듣기

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So they're buying 625 - and when I say stuff, I'm talking about assets.발음듣기

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I'm not talking about goods and services.발음듣기

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I'm talking about stocks and bonds and real estate.발음듣기

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So $625 billion.발음듣기

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And then plus another $165 billion if we talk about the official purchases of governments and central banks.발음듣기

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So this is how much increased asset - this is the change in assets purchased from foreigners in the US.발음듣기

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So they have to put in $790 billion into 2011 to make those purchases.발음듣기

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Well on the other side of that, Americans went out and bought $380 billion.발음듣기

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And when I write- that's just a previous answer.발음듣기

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So we have $790 billion, which is what's inflowing.발음듣기

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And now this is what's outflowing.발음듣기

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$380 billion to buy assets in other countries that the non-Federal Reserve actors do.발음듣기

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And then these are the assets that the Federal Reserve also buys.발음듣기

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But those are also outflows of payments.발음듣기

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And we are left with $394 billion - a positive $394 billion.발음듣기

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This is $394 billion larger than this right over here.발음듣기

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So we're running a capital account surplus.발음듣기

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Let me write that.발음듣기

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So we end up with a capital account surplus, and it shows you how good - what was it? $394 billion.발음듣기

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And so you see that these numbers are pretty close.발음듣기

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And now I'm going to tell you something, and hopefully in future videos you'll understand why this is happening in a little bit more depth.발음듣기

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But these numbers actually should have been the exact same thing.발음듣기

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These numbers should have actually been the exact same thing, but we see that they're off by about, what is it?발음듣기

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They're off by about $80 billion.발음듣기

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So let me write this down.발음듣기

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We have and $80 billion discrepancy.발음듣기

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And for most people, that's a fairly large discrepancy.발음듣기

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But if we're talking about an economy the size of the United States, that's on the order of $15 trillion, it's not that huge of a discrepancy.발음듣기

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And you have to think about how all of this stuff is measured.발음듣기

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They have to do surveys.발음듣기

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They sample things.발음듣기

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They're getting all these numbers from all different sources.발음듣기

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And so it's actually reasonable that you would have some form of statistical discrepancy.발음듣기

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And that's actually what this is right over here.발음듣기

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This is a statistical discrepancy.발음듣기

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In theory, these numbers should be the exact amount.발음듣기

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If you're running a current account deficit then you should have that exact same amount in the capital account surplus, and vice versa.발음듣기

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If you have a capital account deficit then you would have to be running a current account surplus.발음듣기

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We'll talk more about why that makes sense, although I encourage you to think about it.발음듣기

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Think about it right now, why that makes sense, and the difference between these numbers.발음듣기

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This is just a statistical discrepancy by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.발음듣기

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