Short-run oil prices발음듣기
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Short-run oil prices
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In the last video we explored when you pay a certain amount of money on a per gallon basis at the pump, how does that break down who get what?발음듣기
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How much of that goes to the gas station, verses the transportation network, verses the refineries, verses the actual oil producers?발음듣기
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They can change widely based on what's going on in the market, and where we are in the world.발음듣기
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They are fairly indicative. The other thing I want you to realize is that they aren't always proportional.발음듣기
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It's not like that if oil prices were to double that this 15 cents that the retailer got would turn into 30 cents.발음듣기
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In general, regardless of the price of oil, at least in the United States, the retailer tends to get between 5 cents per gallon and 20 cents per gallon.발음듣기
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It's normally in that 10 to 15 cent range. Some of that has to be netted against the 5 cents or so that goes for credit card processing.발음듣기
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The spread that the refineries gets, it's also not necessary proportional to the price of oil.발음듣기
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There are times where the oil prices very high because their might be a lot of excess capacities at the refineries.발음듣기
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Their not able to charge a huge premium, or maybe their not able to get a lot of the other stuff.발음듣기
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The refineries might not be able to make much if anything on each barrel of oil that they actual refine. Sometimes it goes the other way around.발음듣기
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A low price of oil, if the refining capacity is really tight, the refineries can raise the price of the actual refined oil products. They can raise more and more money.발음듣기
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The players in this whole supply chain that do, whose profits are a function of the price of oil are the oil producers.발음듣기
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Sometimes they are different players, and when they are different players, the ones that makes the most when oil prices are high are the producers.발음듣기
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They make some assumptions. They say, "Hey, this oil rig that I'm going to spend a hundred or two hundred million dollars on, this is going to be break even if oil prices are say $30 a barrel."발음듣기
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We see it can't be just the traditional supply and demand, or at least in the short term it can't.발음듣기
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If we look here at 2008. In mid 2008 oil prices were pushing $150, and then only a few months later they had collapsed to $32 a barrel.발음듣기
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The financial crisis hit, obviously, peoples expectations of global growth would have been gone down. The economy wouldn't grow.발음듣기
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That wouldn't be enough to justify a 5 fold decrease in the price of oil. Something else is at play.발음듣기
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As you can imagine, a lot of it is just going to be the psychology of the crowd right over here or the psychology of market.발음듣기
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People were driving up the price of oil, and over here people freaked up, and they started driving down the price of oil.발음듣기
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I mean think about the price, or I'm going to think about the oil markets in particular in the long term and short term, or the long run and the short run.발음듣기
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In the long run we can think of the oil markets like you would think of any traditional microeconomic market.발음듣기
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It's one good or service that has huge implementations on the macroeconomy on the growth of nations, how they act, and whatever else.발음듣기
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That's the quantity of oil. You can imagine that those first few millions of barrels are fairly cheap to produce, and then every incremental millions of barrels.발음듣기
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They have to go explore finding it harder and harder places, using more and more technology to find it, so the marginal cost of producing incremental barrels goes up.발음듣기
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Another way of thinking about this, at a low price, oil producers say, "Hey, I'm going to leave that oil in the ground. Why should I pump it out and produce it now? So there won't be a lot of quantity produce."발음듣기
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We're going to find that oil wherever it is. We are going to pump it and get it to the market.발음듣기
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They get huge benefits, but then the marginal benefit goes down for every incremental barrel of oil.발음듣기
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Another way of thinking about it, at high prices there aren't a lot of people who are interested in doing it.발음듣기
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They say, "Thank you. I'll just go use something else. I'll use solar power, I'll walk to work, or whatever else."발음듣기
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Then at low prices they say, "Hey. I'm going to use all the oil I can use. I'm going to drive my gas guzzler 100 miles to work. I'm just going to drive it around the block for fun.발음듣기
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This kind of gives you a classical model downwards-sloping demand curve, and an upward-sloping supply curve.발음듣기
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Then you would end up with some equilibrium price in the long run, and some equilibrium quantity.발음듣기
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Between here and here you did not have dramatic changes in how people ... the amount of oil that supplied into the market.발음듣기
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You did not have dramatic changes in peoples behavior in terms of how they consumed, or where they consumed a lot or a little of it.발음듣기
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Think about dynamics in the long run, if there is new technology to find new oil to supply curve could shift to the right like this.발음듣기
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If for whatever reason people start driving electric cars, then the demand curve could shift to the left like that.발음듣기
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If for whatever reason it became fashionable again for people to drive SUVs, the demand curve could shift to the right.발음듣기
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If countries economic growth accelerates, if people in India and China end up becoming wealthier and want to buy more combustion automobiles, it could shift to the right.발음듣기
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If there's more drilling, if there's eases regulation on drilling, you could shift the supply curve to the right.발음듣기
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When I think about the short run, I'm not thinking about on a second-by-second basis, the short run is really we're thinking on over a period of months or even a small number of years.발음듣기
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That's because people aren't changing their behavior dramatically on a month-to-month basis.발음듣기
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Obviously, these are gross over simplifications, but they help us think about it a little bit. This is the quantity.발음듣기
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This is price, so in the short run, the quantity supplied is really not going to be too sensitive to price. It might look something like this.발음듣기
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I'll just do it as a vertical line just to really state how in the short offering, over a of months, people are just going to pump out the oil that they were planning on pumping on. Their not going to shut wells.발음듣기
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This is the short run supply curve, regardless of the price. In the long run, if the prices go down they might decided to turn off capacity.발음듣기
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I'll do it in orange. Might look something like this. Where is goes ... looks something like that.발음듣기
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If our price right now is right over here, if it were to pop-up right over there, in the short run, people don't change their behavior that dramatically.발음듣기
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It's takes them a while to start thinking about moving a little bit closer, changing jobs, maybe getting a pass for public transportation, or trading in their gas-guzzling car for another car, or car pooling, or whatever else.발음듣기
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What this describes is in the short run the prices aren't being dictated by these classical microeconomic inputs or factors in terms of supply and demand.발음듣기
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What's really effecting them in the short term is market psychology, and this is why I put a little picture of Chicago Board of Trade.발음듣기
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Instead of people walking around with vials or barrels of oil and exchanging them, they say, "Here's a contract to purchase oil from me in a month, or at a specific date, or two months at a specific date." People trade those.발음듣기
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What's really causing these fluctuations right over here? That can't really be described by all of these things, is peoples psychology, and peoples information.발음듣기
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They say, "Will Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's Prime Minister, decide to preemptively bomb Iran in an attempt to get rid of their nuclear program. Will Iran do something crazy? How would they retaliate?발음듣기
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Even if no one really believes that is happening, some of them might say, Well someone else might believe it."발음듣기
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They might buy the futures contracts and then try to trade it up, and other people, eventually, that oil has to be delivered, they might take deliver of that oil but not bring it to market.발음듣기
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They might hoard it in some way, because they believe that somethings going to happen and oil is going to be scarce at some point in the future.발음듣기
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The big take away is all of these things, the production of oil, other sources of energy, peoples behavior, they do matter in the long run on the price of oil.발음듣기
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In the short run, we're talking about the order of 6 months to over a year. It really is market psychology.발음듣기
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