The business cycle발음듣기
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The business cycle
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This axis right over here is going to be real GDP, so it's an actual measure, not just nominal GDP.발음듣기
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It's an actual measure of the goods and services produced by an economy or the productivity of an economy.발음듣기
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In our little country or whatever economy we're studying here, let's assume that over time its population is growing.발음듣기
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So, population is growing over time, and this is not an unrealistic assumption, this is true of most countries.발음듣기
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Productivity ... Productivity is just essentially how much can each individual person produce?발음듣기
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Productivity goes up due to technology, probably mainly technology, technology Mainly technology, but there could be discoveries of resources.발음듣기
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Because of these trends, and these are trends that do take place over long periods of time in many, many economies, you would expect the real productivity of that economy to increase.발음듣기
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If you were to just do the long-term trend just based on these two things, the population growing and productivity improving, over time, real GDP should have a trend something like that.발음듣기
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When you look at it on the short-term, it doesn't look like a nice, smooth trend line like this.발음듣기
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When you study any major economy in the world, or any economy, any normal economy, instead of going this nice, smooth trend line, it tends to look something more like this.발음듣기
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Real GDP will be going really fast, maybe higher than trend line, and then all of a sudden, it will essentially recede, or it will essentially shrink.발음듣기
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Then it'll start growing again, maybe go above the trend line, then it'll recede ... Go below the trend line.발음듣기
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Then it'll go above the trend line, it'll just keep fluxuating around a trend line like that.발음듣기
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This right over here ... And you could maybe call one cycle, you could say it's from one peak to one peak or one trough to one trough, or whatever you want to call it, it's this idea that the economy isn't just a nice, steady-as-you-go growth, you have periods of fast growth going maybe above the trend line, and then it recedes, then it expands, then it recedes.발음듣기
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Whenever you think of a cycle, even the way I drew it, it kind of looks like a nice well-defined pattern and every the same amount of years you're going up and down, it kind of implies that it's predictable.발음듣기
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When you think of a cycle, it's not this nice, sinusoid pattern, it's much, much more unpredictable.발음듣기
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Over here, where the economy is growing, so the economy is growing from there to there, from there to there, we would call this phase of the business cycle, I'll highlight that in green, we would call that expansion because the economy is literally expanding.발음듣기
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Then when, and we'll talk about the reasons why this is happening, and then when it starts to shrink, the economy starts to shrink, this right over here, or you could call it "recedes", if you think of it in a title analogy, this right over here is called a recession".발음듣기
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If a recession is bad enough, it is sometimes categorized as a "depression", and there's different categories for a depression; there's the famous joke,'발음듣기
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The interesting thing is we see this pattern happening, whether it's every 8 years, 7 years, every 10 years, but we don't fully understand exactly why it's happening.발음듣기
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What we're going to try to attempt to do in the next few videos is look at models that do attempt to explain it.발음듣기
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That's actually the whole purpose why we're going to study aggregate demand and aggregate supply.발음듣기
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With that said, I want you to view those models with a huge grain of salt because those are, I would argue, overly simplified economic models that don't take into consideration probably the most important factor in the economic cycle or any type of market cycle, and that is human emotions. Human emotions.발음듣기
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You might notice in most of our studies of economics so far, we haven't really talked a lot about human emotions or human's tendencies to extrapolate the recent past, or human's greed or risk of fear and greed, and all of these things, that are very real things because in traditional economics, they don't fit neatly into the models.발음듣기
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There are new fields in behavioral economics and behavioral finance that do try to take into account things like human emotions,발음듣기
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but it's not going to make its way into the models that we're going to study in aggregate supply and aggregate demand.발음듣기
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The reason why I say human emotions, and because just based on, I spent I think it was six or seven years in markets while I was an analyst at an investment firm, it was very clear to me that what drove market cycles and economic cycles to a large degree, was based on human emotions.발음듣기
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That what you have happening over here is that the longer time, once again, this isn't what you would classically learn in your freshman economics class, I'm just going to say this ...발음듣기
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Before we start studying the classical one, because I think this does give a better sense of what's probably happening in an economic cycle.발음듣기
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They've just been through this, people were getting laid off over here, people were losing their jobs, people were having trouble paying the bills, companies had very low profits or maybe no profits at all, bankruptcies were occurring, so even though the economy is starting to expand right over here, people were kind of skeptical.발음듣기
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In the recent past, they remember all of this pain so they don't want to go out there and start spending money.발음듣기
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The further and further they go from that point, and I'm just explaining the emotional aspect of the economic cycle which I think is probably the most powerful one, the further and further they go away from this, they say maybe this is for real.발음듣기
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Their memories of all the risk, the memories of all the layoffs and the bankruptcies become more and more distant and then they become more and more confident and more and more eager to invest.발음듣기
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They start investing and spending more and more, they start hiring, and because of all of that, they see fewer and fewer bankruptcies, fewer and fewer layoffs, hiring is starting to occur, people are getting more and more and more optimistic, so the economy keeps growing.발음듣기
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When you go to points right around here, it's been a long time since anyone really talked about major layoffs and bankruptcies, and foreclosures and all the rest.발음듣기
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People over here are feeling super, super confident and they're probably underplaying risk at this point.발음듣기
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They're investing money, they're spending money like there's no tomorrow because they think there will always be good growth.발음듣기
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They think, and there's actually even been studies that show that even economists, when you ask them at this point, what's the foreseeable future going to look like, they tend to extrapolate the recent past.발음듣기
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They say the recent past, we were growing like that, so in the future we will grow like that.발음듣기
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At this point, essentially people are being too bullish, they're being too optimistic and they're probably misallocating investment.발음듣기
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As soon as things don't grow as people expect, they start getting a little bit fearful, but they're still in denial at this point, they get a little bit more fearful, but here they say, "Oh my God, something is going on."발음듣기
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They start panicking, layoffs start happening, economy recedes and then we have the entire cycle again.발음듣기
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I redrew a graph that always gets kind of chain mailed around or sent around usually during every bubble when people start becoming skeptical of the growth and economy.발음듣기
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I think these words really do capture the emotional sentiment of what's going on in either during the business cycle or during a stock market cycle.발음듣기
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Then there's a thrill that people, just the last few years, all they do is they remember making money.발음듣기
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They say, "I'm going to put all my money in the stock market. I'm going to start buying Pets.com and whatever else."발음듣기
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I can just keep flipping houses or buying stocks of Pets.com," or whatever else, day trading.발음듣기
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Then all of a sudden, you have some signs that maybe there was some bad investment, that people's investments weren't turning out as good as they expected.발음듣기
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But then as it continues, as the recession really does continue, they start to get fearful, they start saying,발음듣기
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Maybe this is something going on, then desperate, then panic, and that's when people really, if you think of a stock market cycle, really start to sell in the case of a regular business cycle, they start to maybe underspend, they start to really hoard things, then capitulation ...발음듣기
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This is when they say, "Things are just bad. They're never going to get any better," and then they become despondent and eventually, you could even say, emotionally people start getting depressed because they say it's been so long since we've felt all of these good emotions right over here.발음듣기
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Even though there's maybe a little bit of growth right over here, it's been so long since we've experienced all of these emotions. People are depressed, but then as the growth continues, They start to feel hopeful, a little relieved, they say, "At least we're not getting worse and worse," and then you get back to optimism again.발음듣기
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So keep this in mind because in my mind, the emotions really are the main factor that are playing in either stock market cycles or economic cycles.발음듣기
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