Inflation data

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Inflation data발음듣기

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In the last video, we talked a little bit about what inflation is, and the Consumer Price Index.발음듣기

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And so I thought I would actually show you data and maybe point out a few interesting things right over here.발음듣기

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So this right over here is the monthly press release, or it's the table from the monthly press release, issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.발음듣기

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And this is Table A, which is really a summary of all the important things.발음듣기

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It's the percent changes in CPI for all urban consumers, the CPI-U. And they do it for non or urban consumers and all the rest.발음듣기

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But the CPI that is quoted is the one for urban consumers, the US City Average.발음듣기

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And what I always find is that the details are much more interesting than what you hear just on the news when people say, oh, the CPI changed by 0.5%.발음듣기

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And one thing I do want to point - and this is true of the CPI, this is true of all government statistics; in fact, this is true of any report that any company gives you - it's very important to keep in mind whether they're giving a sequential change or whether they're giving a year-over-year change.발음듣기

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So for example, there might be a press release like this one, and the text of it, or maybe the headline number when you look at your local newspaper or your news report, will say, look in June 2011 inflation on all items, on the entire basket of goods, went down by 0.2%.발음듣기

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And you might say, oh wow, look, there's no inflation.발음듣기

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In fact, prices are going down.발음듣기

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This would be minor deflation.발음듣기

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But it's important to realize that this is only the seasonally adjusted prices from May to June.발음듣기

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Now, when I talk about seasonally adjusted - and traditionally, maybe people use a different amount of energy, a different amount of gasoline from May to June.발음듣기

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And they try to factor that in when they compare the basket of good, the price of the basket of good, from May to June.발음듣기

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So that's what they talk about seasonally adjusting.발음듣기

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But if you look over here, the prices went down for May to June according to adjusting it for the season.발음듣기

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But they year-over-year changes are still up.발음듣기

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If you compare June 2011 to June 2010, it is still up by 3.6%.발음듣기

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And in general, the monthly things are going to be a little bit more volatile.발음듣기

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Obviously, you have the seasonal adjustments.발음듣기

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You have other short-term factors that might change it.발음듣기

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But the year-over-year one is a stronger signal for what is actually happening for inflation.발음듣기

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Although someone might want to pay attention to the monthly one, because that's obviously giving you the most up to date of what's happening now.발음듣기

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And what you'll often see is, they'll give an inflation number for everything, and then they'll subtract out food and energy.발음듣기

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So this is all items less food and energy.발음듣기

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And that's because food and energy, they represent a good bit of the basket, but they're very, very volatile.발음듣기

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You can see it right here in this report, year-over-year energy has gone up double digits, 20% for energy generally.발음듣기

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If you look at fuel oil, 35.6%, at least on this report.발음듣기

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It's been coming down more recently.발음듣기

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But year-over-year it's been up a huge amount.발음듣기

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And so that's actually the main driving factor for this 3.6%.발음듣기

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If you take food and energy out of the equation, if you compare the basket of goods minus that, inflation was only up 1.6%.발음듣기

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It's interesting.발음듣기

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Even within that, you can look at which parts of the economy, or which products and services, are getting a lot more expensive and which ones are getting cheaper.발음듣기

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It's actually interesting that used cars and trucks are up 5.1%.발음듣기

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That seems like a pretty strong price increase for used things.발음듣기

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