Deflation

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Deflation발음듣기

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Deflation is literally just a lowering of prices, or a general decrease in the level of prices for goods and services.발음듣기

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Or another way to think about it, since inflation is an increase in the level of prices, you can just view it as negative inflation.발음듣기

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And so, let's say we're the folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and we're trying to compute the CPI index.발음듣기

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And in one period - let's call this period one over here - we have our CPI index for urban consumers.발음듣기

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And that's the one that's quoted most often.발음듣기

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And we have this basket of goods.발음듣기

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And it'll have housing in it.발음듣기

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Let me write that a little bit neater.발음듣기

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It'll have housing in it.발음듣기

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It'll have transportation in it.발음듣기

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It'll have a fuel in it.발음듣기

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It might have some proxy for entertainment or whatever else inside of it.발음듣기

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And that basket of goods, let's say in period one - and this is a simplification - runs that urban consumer on average $100.발음듣기

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And then we go to period two, and we look at that same basket of goods.발음듣기

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Maybe we're adjusting certain things, maybe some products have become obsolete and we have to replace, or there has to be some adjustments for technology.발음듣기

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And that's all under debate, how you should adjust them.발음듣기

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But given that, assuming everything else is equal, that same basket of goods is now running at $98.발음듣기

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And so the total cost of goods and services for this kind of average consumer has gone down by $2.발음듣기

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Or we could say that we've experienced negative 2% inflation, which is really just another way of saying that we have experienced deflation.발음듣기

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Now, deflation is not the norm, especially for growing economies, the way that our current economic systems runs, although it does happen.발음듣기

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And Japan in particular is probably the most recent, most famous case of deflation.발음듣기

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And the main reason why economists really don't like deflation - or I should say in particular, while central bankers really don't like deflation - is that it makes it much harder to control the economy or to fuel the economy with interest rates alone, or actually just with printing money alone.발음듣기

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And I'll go into a little bit more depth with that in future videos.발음듣기

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One thing I do want to make clear is although deflation isn't what we normally see in the broader economy as a whole, it does happen very frequently in specific sectors.발음듣기

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And the most common one is in the technology sector, specifically hardware.발음듣기

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We've all experienced buying a laptop at one period - so right now you buy the laptop for maybe $1,000 - and then six months later you see that exact same laptop for $500.발음듣기

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And that's just because the rate of technological innovation is going so fast that they can produce the same amount of memory and processing power for a lot cheaper now.발음듣기

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Or for the same amount of money you can get much more memory and processing power, and all of the rest.발음듣기

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And you see this with laptops and with a big screen TVs and phones and all the rest.발음듣기

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