Stagflation

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Stagflation발음듣기

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We've learned that a moderate level of inflation is normally associated with a good economy.발음듣기

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But what we saw - in particular, we saw in the early '70s, in 1973, when the oil embargo hit - is that we started to experience something called stagflation, or something that was labeled stagflation.발음듣기

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It's this weird, bizarre circumstance where you have inflation at the same time as the stagnation in the economy.발음듣기

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So that's where they get this kind of combination of words, of stagflation.발음듣기

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Let's think about how that would happen.발음듣기

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In particular, let's think about how that would happen due to a supply shock.발음듣기

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There's other ways that you could get stagflation if you have strange regulations, over-regulation, if the government does weird things.발음듣기

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But the classic example is a supply shock.발음듣기

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When we say supply shock, it's something like an oil embargo, where all of a sudden the supply of oil, the supply of something, just goes down dramatically.발음듣기

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And it could be because of some type of emergency, or it could be literally because of an embargo.발음듣기

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And just think about how that would affect the rest of this chain.발음듣기

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So if the supply of something dramatically goes down - We know that supply has an inverse relationship with price.발음듣기

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So if supply goes down, then, bam, right there, you see price would immediately go up.발음듣기

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And when we think about something like oil, you might say, hey, oil is only the part of my pocketbook where I drive around.발음듣기

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But it's not, because even when you buy a fruit, you're really paying for the transportation cost.발음듣기

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So the price of oil affects fruit, affects food, affects any good in services.발음듣기

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It's one of these things that's pervasive through the economy.발음듣기

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So the prices of a bunch of things could generally go up.발음듣기

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Well, if the price of a bunch of things generally go up, what's going to happen to demand?발음듣기

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Once again, inverse relationship right over here.발음듣기

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Demand is going to plummet.발음듣기

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If demand plummets, utilization plummets, investment plummets, and profit is going to plummet.발음듣기

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And profit's going to plummet now because, one, utilization is going down, and price has gone up.발음듣기

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But it's not the price that they can sell things at.발음듣기

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Now price is fundamentally a big cost for - especially if you think of it from a US-centric point of view, if oil is an import, as in the case of the early '70s, then price going up is going to have, I guess they have an inverse relationship.발음듣기

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So the price goes up.발음듣기

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It's really going to be on the cost side.발음듣기

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So once again, hitting profits hard.발음듣기

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And if all of these things go down, that's just going to kill employment, kill wages, and then further make demand even worse.발음듣기

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So stagflation is that situation where you have some type of shock to the system, where in the classic scenario it hits supply so hard it causes a massive inflation in one part of the economy, and as is the case of oil, a part that affects other parts of the economy.발음듣기

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And then all of that kind of throws a monkey wrench in everything else.발음듣기

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