Risk and reward introduction발음듣기
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Risk and reward introduction
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출처 : 칸아카데미
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Whenever people talk about investing, the terms risk and reward tend to come up a lot, and they usually tend to come up together.발음듣기
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Somehow implying that the more risk you take, the more reward that you might be able to get.발음듣기
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But what I want to do in this video is give a little bit of an introduction to that, or a little bit of context, and a little bit more structure on how do you think about risk and reward.발음듣기
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So let's say that we have $1,000, and we want to figure out what we can do with this $1,000.발음듣기
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And in this situation, our reward - I'll start with the reward first - is we'll get - I don't know - 1% in interest per year, 1% annual interest.발음듣기
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Well, if I'm putting it into a savings account - and I'm assuming I'm putting it into an FDIC insured savings account.발음듣기
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Which means that if for whatever reason that bank were to fail, below some limit, the Fed will insure your money.발음듣기
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So even if this bank fails, and it loses all of its money and everything, you'll still get your deposit back.발음듣기
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So if you're investing, or if you're putting money in an FDIC insured savings account, your risk is essentially 0.발음듣기
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But you might say, look, you know, this is a good risk, but I feel like I can get more than 1% on my money, let me think about the other places that I could invest it.발음듣기
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Well, you could - and obviously I'm not going to be exhaustive on all of the different investment options, I just want to give you a sense of risk and reward.발음듣기
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There's really very few circumstances in which you could imagine that this company would not be able to pay off its debt.발음듣기
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So the reward here, if you lend your money to this company, they will pay you 6% in annual interest on your $1,000.발음듣기
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The Federal Reserve isn't saying that they'll either give the money if the bank goes out of business, or they'll print the money if they don't even have it.발음듣기
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If it goes bankrupt, then all the people that the company owes money to will go after that company's assets.발음듣기
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But maybe you are low on the pecking order, or maybe the company doesn't have enough assets to pay everyone back.발음듣기
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But since this is a very reputable company, and as we said it has a lot of assets, it has a very stable business, it does good in boom times and in recessions, this is a low risk of business default.발음듣기
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So I'll write, low risk, right over here, because we're assuming it is a reputable company that has a lot of assets, and all the rest.발음듣기
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Now let's say that even that 6%, you know, it's all right, but you feel like you could get more.발음듣기
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So let's say that you have a friend who is a - let's say that he's just starting his career as a doctor, so he says he has a nice, stable job.발음듣기
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So he's just starting, and he wants to find people who can help him with the down payment on the house.발음듣기
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And he says, anyone who's willing to lend to me, I will give them 8% annual interest on their money.발음듣기
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Maybe he has of some type of addictive personality, and he likes to drink away all of his money.발음듣기
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But it's definitely riskier than this company, because you have no assets to go after if he doesn't pay.발음듣기
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But there are definitely more risks associated with this individual doctor who does not have assets you can go after.발음듣기
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And you're just going to invest in a bunch of - a broad portfolio, kind of investing in the market as a whole.발음듣기
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So you look at historical results in the market and you say, look it, goes up and down every year.발음듣기
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But over long periods of time, it looks like people - and this isn't the exact number - but it looks like people have averaged approximately 10% per year.발음듣기
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Well, the risk is that this expectation is just based on what the historical returns in the market were.발음듣기
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There are huge periods of time in the market - I'm talking 10, 20, 30 years where the market is flat.발음듣기
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In any given year, the market could go down in the double digits or in the 30 , 40% even, in a really, really bad year.발음듣기
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It's not going to be a constant upward trend, like your savings account will be. Volatility.발음듣기
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Your brother-in-law has been out of work for a little bit, and he says that all he needs to start his new guaranteed money making scheme is $1,000, so he can buy the equipment, so that he can start it up in his garage.발음듣기
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And, let's say that your brother-in-law is right, and this becomes a million dollar business.발음듣기
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So this is a very, very, very, very high reward, if what your brother-in-law is telling you is correct.발음듣기
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Well, the risk here is obviously that he's not correct and that he squanders all of your money.발음듣기
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And not only could you lose the monetary money that you put in, it could also ruin your relationship with your brother-in-law and maybe your spouse.발음듣기
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Once your brother-in-law loses all of your money, it won't be so easy at Thanksgiving anymore to have a civil conversation.발음듣기
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So in general, the overlying - I probably did more of these scenarios than I needed to - but I think you see the general trend.발음듣기
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And if there's something that looks like it's really safe with the really high reward, one of those two things are probably not true.발음듣기
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So if we were to plot all of these, and I haven't really quantified - I haven't given you a way of measuring risk.발음듣기
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In future videos we can think about that, and academics have thought about ways of measuring risk.발음듣기
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If you lend to the doctor, once again, the risk is a little bit higher than lending to that company or the savings account.발음듣기
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Your brother-in-law, super high risk, probably off the charts over here, but also super high reward.발음듣기
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