Backwardation bullish or bearish

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Backwardation bullish or bearish발음듣기

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If a commodities trader tells you that a market is in backwardation, they're essentially saying that it costs more to buy whatever commodity they're talking about now than it would to buy it later, to go into a futures contract to buy whatever that commodity might be - silver, gold, or oil - to buy it later.발음듣기

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So later is cheaper.발음듣기

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So, the question you might ask yourself, or really, any trader might ask themselves, is this bullish or is this a bearish?발음듣기

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Is this a bullish situation?발음듣기

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And there's no obvious rule of thumb here.발음듣기

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But if someone says, look, to get something now costs more than to get it later, what does that tell you about what's happening in the market?발음듣기

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Well, it tells you that people are desperate.발음듣기

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Because if they weren't desperate, the rational thing to do would just be wait.발음듣기

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Wait a little while and get it cheaper for later.발음듣기

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Or, if you don't need that oil right now, if you don't need that corn right now, or if you don't need that gold right now, instead of paying more for it right now, just say, look, I could enter into a futures contract for delivery of that gold or oil or corn or whatever it is at a later date for a cheaper price.발음듣기

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And I wouldn't even have to store it between now and then.발음듣기

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So, if some people were rational and if they weren't desperate, this wouldn't happen.발음듣기

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But because they're willing to do this, they're willing to pay more now than for a future delivery date, it shows you that there might be some type of shortage.발음듣기

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In the case of oil, maybe the oil supply has been disrupted somehow.발음듣기

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In the case of corn, for whatever reason, some crops have been destroyed, and people need to eat, and all of the rest.발음듣기

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For commodities that aren't used, so to speak, like gold, if you see backwardation there, I wouldn't say - I mean, it's definitely still desperation, but it's not out of a core need.발음듣기

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If gold goes in the backwardation, it's more because of some type of irrational desire to have their hands on the gold now than have their hands on the gold later.발음듣기

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Maybe they think society is going to collapse, and the future delivery dates of gold aren't going to actually hold up.발음듣기

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Who knows what they are?발음듣기

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So in general, when people talk about backwardation, because of this desperation in the market, people tend to perceive it as a bullish signal.발음듣기

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Obviously if people are desperate, there's demand for this thing.발음듣기

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My argument is, you can't just look at one tea leaf out of a bunch of tea leaves and say whether it's bullish or bearish.발음듣기

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But what you could say is, look, there's something somewhat abnormal going in the market due to some type of desperation.발음듣기

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It's a little less irrational it it's due to a storage, but it could be very irrational if it's a due to just wanting your hands on it.발음듣기

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Because frankly, if you wanted to buy gold just for the sake of investing in gold - you're not going to eat it or use it to fuel your car or anything like that - it would make complete sense, or even better, if you already held gold in this type of a market that's undergoing backwardation.발음듣기

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The rational thing to do would be to sell your gold now for more money, and then agree to buy it back later for cheaper.발음듣기

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And so once this later date comes about, you'll still have your gold, and you would have made some risk free profits.발음듣기

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