Floating exchange resolving trade imbalance

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Floating exchange resolving trade imbalance발음듣기

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What I want to do in this video is explore how the floating exchange rate could, in theory, help resolve trading imbalances.발음듣기

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And for this simplified example, We are going to assume that the exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan and the US $ is 6 Yuan per 1 US $.발음듣기

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And also for simplification, we are going to assume that China is only exporting one thing to the United States and that one thing is microwaves.발음듣기

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And at 6 yuan per $, the Chinese manufacturer is going to sell them in the United States for $50 each.발음듣기

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And at that price, there is a demand in the US for 1 million microwaves.발음듣기

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I'm also going to assume that the only export from the US to China is software.발음듣기

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And they have demand for 2 million units if they sell them at 60 yuan per unit.발음듣기

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So let's think about what the demand for the each of the currencies will be from each of the manufacturers.발음듣기

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So the Chinese manufacturer over a year is going to sell a million units for $50 each.발음듣기

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So he's gonna get $50 million dollars in revenue.발음듣기

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And he is going to want to convert that $50 million into yuan.발음듣기

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So you can kind of view this as a supply.발음듣기

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This right over here is the supply of US dollars.발음듣기

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And we are going to assume that these are the only people that are creating currencies, because they are the only people trading in this ultra simplified world.발음듣기

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Now the US manufacturer is going to sell 2 million units at 60 yuan each.발음듣기

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So that's going to be 120 million yuan of revenue.발음듣기

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And he is going to want to convert this into dollars at the prevailing exchange rate right then which is 6 yuan per dollar.발음듣기

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So he's going to want to convert this.발음듣기

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He divides this by 6.발음듣기

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He's going to want to convert that into 20 million dollars.발음듣기

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And obviously, he's going to want to convert into yuan, because that's where his costs are in, that's where he lives.발음듣기

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This guy wants to convert into dollars, because that's where his costs are.발음듣기

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Now this is the supply of dollars.발음듣기

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These dollars wants to be converted into Chinese currency.발음듣기

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This right here is the demand for dollars.발음듣기

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This is the amount of $ needed by a guy converting from yuan.발음듣기

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Now clearly, there is an imbalance.발음듣기

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The supply of $ is much larger than the demand for $ in this situation.발음듣기

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And anytime the supply for anything is larger than the demand...발음듣기

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If the supply is larger than the demand then that means the price must go down.발음듣기

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And we talk about the price of a currency, in this case, the price of the dollar going down.발음듣기

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We are talking about in terms of yuan.발음듣기

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So the dollar... ...the dollar will go down.발음듣기

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The price goes down which means the yuan goes up.발음듣기

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The dollar will become weaker.발음듣기

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The yuan will become stronger.발음듣기

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Now, if that happens, what happens to the prices over here?발음듣기

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If the yuan becomes stronger, we start seeing 4 yuan or 5 yuan per $ or even 3 yuan per $.발음듣기

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Then this Chinese manufacturer won't be able to afford to sell at only $50.발음듣기

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He is going to have to raise the price in order to cover his costs in Chinese currency.발음듣기

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If he raises the price, he's going to lower the demand.발음듣기

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On the other side of the equation, the American manufacturer, in order to get the same number of dollars, he actually can sell it for fewer yuan.발음듣기

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Now he needs fewer yuan per each dollar.발음듣기

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So he can actually lower the price in China.발음듣기

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And if he lowers the price in China, that's going to increase the demand.발음듣기

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So what you have happening is because yuan would become stronger, if you had a floating exchange rate, the demand for Chinese goods would go down and the demand for the US goods would go up.발음듣기

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And eventually, you would have this trade and currency imbalance resolve itself.발음듣기

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Now, this is all theoretical, and reality is that it's not allowed to float.발음듣기

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We'll describe that more in future videos.발음듣기

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This is Salman Khan from the Khan Academy for CNBC.발음듣기

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