Arbitraging futures contracts II

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Arbitraging futures contracts II발음듣기

Let's say that the settlement price for delivering 1,000 pounds of apples on October 20, which we're going to assume is one year from now, let's assume that it's $200.발음듣기

Let's also assume that the current market price for 1,000 pounds of apples is also $200.발음듣기

So that future settlement price is the same as the current market price.발음듣기

And we're also going to assume, like the last example, that these apples that we have never go bad.발음듣기

They're just things that they never rot or anything.발음듣기

So they're as good in a year as they are right now.발음듣기

Let's also assume, above and beyond the assumptions of the last video, that we can borrow and sell apples in the current market.발음듣기

That we can actually short apples.발음듣기

So I go to someone who's got 1,000 pounds of apples who doesn't really see any need for them over the next year, and I say, can I borrow those apples?발음듣기

And what I do is I say, I'll borrow those apples.발음듣기

I'll sell those apples in the market today.발음듣기

And of the interest that I get on those apples, I'm going to give you 1%, the person who actually owns the apples.발음듣기

And that person says, oh, sure, why not?발음듣기

That way I actually get some money on my apples that I had no intention of using for a year.발음듣기

And then I, as the borrower and seller, will get 4% net.발음듣기

I'll get 4% net on the apples.발음듣기

So given this reality, what could I do, once again, to make a risk-free profit?발음듣기

Well, as you could imagine, I can borrow and sell the apples for a year.발음듣기

So let me write this down.발음듣기

I'm going to borrow and sell 1,000 pounds of apples.발음듣기

So if I just borrow it today and sell it, today's market price is $200 for 1,000 pounds.발음듣기

So I'm going to get $200.발음듣기

Now on top of that, what I want to do is agree to be the buyer on this futures contract.발음듣기

So let me write that down.발음듣기

Agree, you could say to go long the futures contract, or agree to be buyer on futures contract.발음듣기

So I'm agreeing, a year from now, to buy 1,000 pounds of apples for $200.발음듣기

So let's fast forward.발음듣기

Let's fast forward one year.발음듣기

So what's happened?발음듣기

So of the $200 I got from shorting the apples I got 5% on that.발음듣기

But I had to give 1% to the person I borrowed the apples from.발음듣기

So I'm getting 4% net. 4% on $200 is $8.발음듣기

So now I now have $208 because I got that 4% interest.발음듣기

It was $210.발음듣기

I gave $2.00 to the person who lent me the apples.발음듣기

Now I can use $200 of that to essentially uphold my part of the futures contract, to buy the apples for $200, for that agreed upon price.발음듣기

So $200 to buy apples.발음듣기

And I know I can do this regardless of what the market price is because that was the delivery price on the futures contract.발음듣기

So now I have $8 net.발음듣기

And those apples that I've just bought, those 1,000 pounds of apples, I can then use those apples to return it to the person that I borrowed the apples from.발음듣기

So they got their apples back.발음듣기

And they got that 1% on the $200 over the course of the year.발음듣기

And I made a risk-free $8.발음듣기

So if you think about it once again, this is setting a lower bound on what the actual settlement price on the futures contract is.발음듣기

I should not be able to make this risk-free profit.발음듣기

If it's available, then people will do it.발음듣기

And what it will do is it will increase demand to be the buyer here.발음듣기

So this price should go up.발음듣기

And it would increase supply on the selling side here.발음듣기

And so maybe this price over here would go down.발음듣기

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