Shorting stock 2

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Shorting stock 2발음듣기

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Let's review what we went over in the last video, and one of you all actually commented that it would be a good idea to draw a timeline.발음듣기

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So I'll draw a timeline. Short.발음듣기

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So we're learning about short selling.발음듣기

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And in the last example - let me do the timeline where things work out well for the short seller.발음듣기

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So let me draw the stock price of IBM.발음듣기

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Let me make this its - OK, here we go.발음듣기

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So let's say that this is - that could be our timeline, it's by day.발음듣기

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Let me draw the stock of IBM, it could look something like - that's my y-axis.발음듣기

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Let's say the stock right now is at $100, it's trading someplace like that.발음듣기

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And let's say it does that later, right?발음듣기

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But we're sitting at this point right here - we're sitting at, let's call this day 0.발음듣기

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So what does the short seller do?발음듣기

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So let's say the short seller, right now - let me see if I can draw his balance sheet.발음듣기

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So right now, the short seller, he has assets and liabilities.발음듣기

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His assets - I won't worry about collateral requirements and all of that right now.발음듣기

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But usually he already has to have some assets ahead of time for him to be able to borrow shares.발음듣기

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But, actually - let me give him some collateral ahead of time.발음듣기

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So let's say that he already has $60 in his account.발음듣기

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He has $60 of assets on day 0.발음듣기

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And then this is the day that he says, you know what?발음듣기

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I've done my analysis and I think IBM - he doesn't see this part of the stock price, I mean, it would be great if he did.발음듣기

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Then you could short with conviction.발음듣기

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But all he sees is the past, right?발음듣기

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If he did a stock chart he would just see - let me switch colors - he would just see this green part right here.발음듣기

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He wouldn't see all the stuff that's in the future.발음듣기

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But he has a lot of conviction that IBM is going to go down.발음듣기

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So what he does is, he borrows a share of IBM on that day.발음듣기

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So then on this day he borrows one share.발음듣기

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So he has - let's call that IBM - one IBM.발음듣기

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And he also owes one IBM. Right?발음듣기

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Right after you borrow it, before you do anything into it, you have it as an asset, and you also owe it back.발음듣기

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And if you wanted unwind the borrowing of it, you could just give it back.발음듣기

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But what he does at this point is he sells this IBM.발음듣기

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He sells that share and he gets $100 for it.발음듣기

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Because that was just the market price.발음듣기

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That's what people were willing to trade IBM shares for at that point in time.발음듣기

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That's day 0.발음듣기

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Then let's say IBM reports its earnings, and they're really bad.발음듣기

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And that happened on, I don't know, probably happened on this day. IBM reports.발음듣기

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And the stock tends to go down, down, down.발음듣기

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People take a long time to realize how bad the report was.발음듣기

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And here at this day, once the stock has reached $50, our short seller says OK, that's enough.발음듣기

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I don't think the stock's going to drop a lot more.발음듣기

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So on day - let's call this day 10.발음듣기

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10 days have gone by.발음듣기

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Day 10, he decides to cover.발음듣기

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So going into day 10, this is his balance sheet - let me redraw it.발음듣기

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So going in to day 10, what does he have?발음듣기

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He has $160.발음듣기

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The $60 he had before, just by actually working.발음듣기

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And he owes - this is his asset, and his liabilities is he owes one share of IBM to the broker.발음듣기

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And the broker really owes it to one of the shareholders of IBM who happened to be keeping the share with the broker.발음듣기

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And he wants to cover.발음듣기

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So what he does is, he takes $100 - no, no sorry, he doesn't take $100.발음듣기

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Now shares of IBM only cost $50, right?발음듣기

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So he takes $50 to buy a share, to buy one IBM.발음듣기

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So instead of $160, he now has $110 and he has a share of IBM.발음듣기

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And then what he does is, he takes this share of IBM and then gives it to the brokerage to pay off his liability.발음듣기

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So then he's done.발음듣기

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He's left with no liabilities, and just $110 of assets.발음듣기

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So he made $50.발음듣기

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So hopefully that clarifies it up a little bit, in that he sold here, and bought here.발음듣기

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It's the reverse of a lot of stock, it's almost like you're acting in reverse time.발음듣기

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But this was a very good scenario for the short seller.발음듣기

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But he very easily could have made a blunder.발음듣기

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Let's see what could have been a blunderous scenario.발음듣기

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Let me draw a different stock chart for IBM.발음듣기

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So let me draw the stock up to the day in question, and we said it was looking something like this, where it was trading right at around $100.발음듣기

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And this is the day that our short seller decides to short it, and this happens. Right?발음듣기

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He essentially borrows a share of IBM.발음듣기

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So he has a one IBM share liability.발음듣기

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He sells that share and he collects $100.발음듣기

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And then let's say IBM reports on this day, so this is day 0.발음듣기

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Now IBM reports, and it's actually great.발음듣기

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They did way better than anyone could have expected.발음듣기

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So then the IBM shares skyrocket, and they go to this level.발음듣기

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And at this point this - and I'll talk more about short psychology and short squeezing, and all that - but maybe here he's like, oh no, this is just a temporary blip, let me keep holding my position.발음듣기

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But then the stock keeps going up and up and he says oh, this is just temporary, it's going to go back down.발음듣기

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But at some point, his tolerance for pain has been tapped out.발음듣기

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And let's say IBM gets to $150.발음듣기

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He says, I can't handle this anymore.발음듣기

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And I think you're already noticing a very negative dynamic or a highly risky dynamic that occurs with shorts, is that you can lose an arbitrary amount of money.발음듣기

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Because what's happening now?발음듣기

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Let's say he wants to cover it right now.발음듣기

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This is day 10 in this alternate universe.발음듣기

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So now, what are his assets and his liabilities?발음듣기

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Going in to day 10, his asset, we said, was $160.발음듣기

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Because he had short sold, he had $160.발음듣기

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But he owes one share of IBM.발음듣기

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For him to unwind this, to pay back the share of IBM, what does he have to do?발음듣기

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He has to go out into the market and buy a share of IBM at this higher price, at $150.발음듣기

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So when he goes out, instead of $160 he has to use 100 - so he has $10 - and then he uses $150 of that to go buy - $150 of the $160 to buy a share of IBM.발음듣기

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So then he gets a share of IBM.발음듣기

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And then he can pay that share back to the broker and cancel out his position.발음듣기

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And he's left with just $10.발음듣기

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So in this scenario when the stock price rose by $50, he lost $50.발음듣기

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So he sold low and then he bought high, right?발음듣기

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And the really risky thing that maybe is apparent to you now about short selling is that his loss could have been infinite.발음듣기

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What if IBM, instead of going to $150, what if went to $200?발음듣기

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Then he would have lost $200 - if it went to $200, he would have lost $100.발음듣기

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If it went to $300, he would have lost $200.발음듣기

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So his loss isn't just the amount of the original short position.발음듣기

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It isn't just the $100 or whatever the original price of IBM was.발음듣기

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It can be an infinite amount, so it really can kill your balance sheet.발음듣기

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Or really make you broke.발음듣기

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While when you go in the long side of things, if I were to buy IBM here.발음듣기

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Let's say I'm the guy that bought this share from the short seller.발음듣기

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What's my worst case scenario?발음듣기

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Well the worst thing I can have happen is that the share of IBM goes to 0.발음듣기

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So my loss is really, I can just go to 0.발음듣기

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I won't end up owing someone an infinite amount of money.발음듣기

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So short selling, inherently, because of this infinite, you could say downside to the short seller, right?발음듣기

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They can lose an infinite amount of money.발음듣기

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They have to be really careful about how they make their positions and how they protect themselves from this eventuality.발음듣기

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And we'll talk a little bit about things like margin requirements and things like that in the future, that essentially make sure - are the broker's way of making sure that the short seller can actually - is good to buy back the shares.발음듣기

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Anyway, see you in the next video.발음듣기

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