Natural, cyclical, structural and frictional unemployment rates

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Natural, cyclical, structural and frictional unemployment rates발음듣기

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[Instructor] We've already discussed the notion of unemployment at length in other videos.발음듣기

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And what we're going to do in this video is dig a little bit deeper and think about what makes up the unemployment rate?발음듣기

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And just as a review, the unemployment rate it's the percentage of people in the labor force who are actively looking for a job.발음듣기

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And on this chart that you see here, or this graph from the St. Louis Federal Reserve this brown color is the unemployment rate.발음듣기

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And you can see how it jumps around along with the economic cycles.발음듣기

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These gray areas, right over here these show recessions and then the white areas are expansion.발음듣기

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You can see how the unemployment rate jumps during most of these recessions or really all of these recessions here.발음듣기

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But then we have other things graphed.발음듣기

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We have this thing in blue known as the natural rate of unemployment.발음듣기

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What is that?발음듣기

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Well, it is what the word describes.발음듣기

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You could view this blue line and it's really an approximation of what would the unemployment rate be if you did not have these economic cycles.발음듣기

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These periods of expansion and then recession.발음듣기

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In some ways, you can view it as the smoothed out unemployment rate.발음듣기

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And so if this in brown, is the unemployment rate and then in blue, right over here you have your natural rate of unemployment.발음듣기

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People will sometimes use NRU for that.발음듣기

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The difference between the two that's the unemployment caused by the business cycle.발음듣기

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So this is, so let's say if we go right over here where we had a high unemployment rate this difference right over here.발음듣기

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So you could view this as the unemployment rate minus the natural rate of unemployment minus the natural rate of unemployment that's the unemployment that's caused by the business cycle.발음듣기

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and so that's why it is called cyclical.발음듣기

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Cyclical unemployment.발음듣기

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And so you could see at during recessions or shortly after recession ends when the unemployment rate is very high your cyclical unemployment the unemployment caused due to the business cycle is going to be positive.발음듣기

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But when the economy is really humming there, you can even have negative cyclical unemployment.발음듣기

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Right over here.발음듣기

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Where the true unemployment rate is lower than the natural rate of unemployment maybe people who are hiring maybe business just have to hire people that aren't fully qualified for the jobs.발음듣기

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Or whatever else just because things are so hot at that moment in time.발음듣기

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But then we can break down things even further.발음듣기

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We can break down this notion of natural rate of unemployment into two components.발음듣기

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You can break it down into structural I will do that in this blue color so structural.발음듣기

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Structural unemployment and frictional unemployment.발음듣기

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Not fictional, frictional. (laughs)발음듣기

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Frictional unemployment.발음듣기

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And we don't have the exact data that here but let's, I'll just draw something just to imagine.발음듣기

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Let's just imagine this isn't the exact this isn't the exact information.발음듣기

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But let's imagine that the frictional unemployment rate would be this much right over here.발음듣기

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And then the structural would be the rest to make it add up to the natural rate of unemployment.발음듣기

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And so one thing that you might immediately say is okay, the natural rate is made up of structural plus frictional unemployment or if you add frictional plus structural you get your natural rate.발음듣기

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But what are these things?발음듣기

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Well, structural unemployment this is a situation where people are being counted in the unemployment rate but there's something about a disconnect between their skills.발음듣기

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And what employers are looking for that is making it difficult for them to find a job.발음듣기

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You could imagine when the car was replacing the horse and buggy if you are a horse and buggy driver.발음듣기

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Or you were good caring for horses but now people were looking for auto mechanics or people who knew about cars or people who could help build roads for cars.발음듣기

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Well then that would be a situation with structural unemployment.발음듣기

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Where the skills did not match the jobs.발음듣기

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And so over time, and there's you might say, well over time those people would learn to do things for cars.발음듣기

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But there's always change in the economy.발음듣기

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If you think about it right now technology is constantly evolving.발음듣기

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There's constantly new needs in the economy and so there will always be some lack of fit between the skills that people have right now and the skills that employers need.발음듣기

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It might also relate to where people are.발음듣기

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Where the people might not be in the place where the jobs are, or vice versa.발음듣기

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Now, frictional unemployment.발음듣기

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Well, that comes out of the ideas that there are some frictions when you look for a job.발음듣기

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You've got to submit your resume you have to interview around everyone doesn't go directly from one job to the next.발음듣기

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It's a good situation to be in but many times you might have graduated from college you are looking for a job.발음듣기

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Employers are looking to fill a position.발음듣기

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And so this is just a natural state of affairs.발음듣기

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Over time, if technology gets better if there's better ways to match jobs the frictional unemployment could decrease.발음듣기

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But it's unlikely it will ever go to zero.발음듣기

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That there will always be some people in the labor market who are actively looking for a job who have the skills that the labor market needs so they wouldn't be counted in the structural unemployment but they haven't found that job yet.발음듣기

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So I will leave you there.발음듣기

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And hopefully this gives you an appreciation that you often see the unemployment rate but you can think about it as being made up of the natural rate of unemployment and the cyclical unemployment.발음듣기

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And then the natural rate of unemployment itself can be broken down further into structural and frictional unemployment.발음듣기

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