Bailout 6: Getting an equity infusion발음듣기
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And I've made this balance sheet so messy I think it would make sense to redraw it cleaned up a little bit.발음듣기
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So what's our new balance sheet, after we've unloaded a lot of those assets?발음듣기
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All I have now, I have a little bit of cash, let me write that down, I had $1 billion of cash.발음듣기
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I'll write the 'b' there so you know.발음듣기
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And just so you know, a bank needs cash to operate.발음듣기
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It can't just use all of its cash to pay off things.발음듣기
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Because then it won't be able to even transact with its customers, or pay its rent, or send its executives on their Learjets, whatever it needs to do.발음듣기
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But anyway, you have $1 billion of cash.발음듣기
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So you might have been thinking, why not just use its cash to unload some of that debt?발음듣기
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Well, you always have to keep some cash on line just to conduct business.발음듣기
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And actually, that's called working capital.발음듣기
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But anyway, back to the point of this video.발음듣기
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So you have $1 billion in cash.발음듣기
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And at least the management of this company thinks that it has $4 billion worth of residential CDOs.발음듣기
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And this is the toxic stuff that's the focus of this government bailout, which is really historic in its proportions.발음듣기
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And I'll talk more about that later.발음듣기
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And on the liabilities side, what was left?발음듣기
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I think I had called it Loan C.발음듣기
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I'll write liabilities in red, just because they're bad.발음듣기
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They're not bad, but they're something you owe, so they're not as pleasant.발음듣기
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So Loan C, we said was $3 billion.발음듣기
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And then what is the equity?발음듣기
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I'll do that in yellow.발음듣기
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So the total assets were $5 billion in assets.발음듣기
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You have $3 billion in liabilities.발음듣기
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So if you believe what the accountants or the bank management has said about their assets, if you wanted to just liquidate everything.발음듣기
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If you had $5 billion in assets, you liquidate them, got $5 billion, you paid off your $3 billion in loans, you'd be left with $2 billion.발음듣기
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So that's the equity.발음듣기
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And just as a reminder, how many shares where there?발음듣기
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I think I originally set in the original video that we have 500 million shares.발음듣기
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So each of those shares is one 500 millionth of this equity.발음듣기
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So let's see, the book value per share is what?발음듣기
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It's going to be the book value, $2 billion, divided by 500 million.발음듣기
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Remember, it was $6 not too long ago.발음듣기
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But we had to take those commercial mortgages that we thought were worth $10 billion, actually ended up being worth $9 billion.발음듣기
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So we lost $1 billion of our book value.발음듣기
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And $1 billion translates to $2 of the share price.발음듣기
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Anyway, fair enough.발음듣기
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And maybe at this point the market value of the share, so that's essentially the stock price if you were to look up this company's ticker price, let's say it's at $1.발음듣기
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Because they're like, boy, after all this Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, this is all getting a little nerve racking.발음듣기
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And they have this shady thing over here.발음듣기
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So we have to be careful.발음듣기
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So if the market value is $1, what are they saying about the assets?발음듣기
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Or what are they saying about the equity?발음듣기
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Well, what's the market cap?발음듣기
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It's the share price times the number of shares.발음듣기
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So they're saying essentially that the market cap, and that's equivalent to the market value of the equity, or what the market thinks the equity is worth, that's $1 times 500 million shares.발음듣기
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So it's worth $500 million.발음듣기
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So the market is actually saying, no, you don't have $2 billion of equity, you only have half a billion of equity.발음듣기
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And it's probably because they think this is worth a billion and a half left.발음듣기
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But anyway, we'll leave that aside for now.발음듣기
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But now we're getting to the crux of the issue.발음듣기
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Two of those other loans, they came due, no-one was willing to renew the loans, or give them new loans.발음듣기
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So the company had to liquidate some of their assets in order to pay those loans down.발음듣기
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Now, this is the endgame.발음듣기
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And let's say Loan C comes due.발음듣기
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So they say, things are really shady, your assets they look very similar to Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, we're not going to renew your loan.발음듣기
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You go out to the credit markets, you try to issue bonds, you try to do anything you can.발음듣기
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No-one's willing to give you a loan, just because they're all a little bit scared.발음듣기
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So what do you do?발음듣기
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Well, you have to pay $3 billion of loans.발음듣기
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You just have to.발음듣기
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Because no-one's willing to give you $3 billion.발음듣기
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Well you say, out of this cash I can't use all of it.발음듣기
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If I just wanted to operate bare-bones, maybe I could give $0.5 billion in cash.발음듣기
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But that's not going to help my situation at all.발음듣기
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Because I still would have $2.5 billion left.발음듣기
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So you're like, wow I'm in a situation where I have to sell these CDOs.발음듣기
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So now, all my models and all my assumptions are going to see if they were even vaguely accurate.발음듣기
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If these things are really worth $4 billion.발음듣기
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So I go out there and I try to sell my CDOs.발음듣기
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I try to sell them for whatever I can get for them, because I have to sell them.발음듣기
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And one, there's no market for them.발음듣기
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Because there's a lot of people who want to unload them, but there's not really anybody who's keen on buying it.발음듣기
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So there might not even be any market.발음듣기
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But you're like, no I want to sell them.발음듣기
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So you broadcast it out to every hedge fund and private equity fund and every bank out there.발음듣기
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And you say, who wants to buy my CDOs?발음듣기
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And some private equity firm comes and says, OK well, I think that those things are pretty toxic, but they're probably worth maybe something.발음듣기
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I'm pretty optimistic about the real estate market.발음듣기
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And maybe in 10 years they might come back.발음듣기
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So I'm willing to give you $1 billion for those CDOs.발음듣기
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So essentially, what's the market price of something?발음듣기
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It's the best price that someone's willing to give you for something.발음듣기
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So the market price of this, because you've shopped it around, you've gone to the market, you've gone to everyone you can, the market price for this is, essentially, the market is offering you $1 billion for this CDO.발음듣기
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So what do you do?발음듣기
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Well, if you sell it for $1 billion, does that help your situation?발음듣기
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If you sell this for $1 billion, you get $1 billion here, you have $1 billion of cash, you have a total of $2 billion, that still won't pay your loan.발음듣기
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You're still going to be bankrupt.발음듣기
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And even more, the company management is very stubborn.발음듣기
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They say, if I sell it I'm going to go bankrupt.발음듣기
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And I think that that's some kind of fire sale price, quote-unquote.발음듣기
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That's not the real price.발음듣기
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All of a sudden for the first time in my career when I was getting $30 million a year bonuses, I heavily believed in the market.발음듣기
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But now I'm in denial of the market.발음듣기
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I say, the only reason why I'm only getting $1 billion for this is because everyone is afraid.발음듣기
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And these things, if someone were to just hold them to maturity, if someone were to just hold these assets for the 30 years over which the underlying mortgages will just pay out, someone's going to collect roughly $4 billion.발음듣기
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Or maybe at worst, $3.5 billion.발음듣기
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So I'm not going to do this.발음듣기
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But really, you have no choice.발음듣기
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So what you try to do is you say, well can someone give me some type of a loan?발음듣기
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Just lend me some money in the short term just so that I could get this paid off.발음듣기
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And I'll be willing to give this as collateral.발음듣기
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Collateral on a loan is you give me a loan, and you take this as collateral, and if I don't pay the loan, you just keep the asset.발음듣기
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And that's essentially what the Fed was doing.발음듣기
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The Fed traditionally only gives loans if you give something really nice as a collateral, like treasuries, essentially just treasuries.발음듣기
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And they'll still take a little discount of your collateral.발음듣기
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Like if you give the Federal Reserve $1 of treasuries, they might give you $0.80 of loans.발음듣기
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But over this whole credit crunch, the Fed has gotten looser and looser in terms of what it's willing to accept as collateral.발음듣기
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So actually, the Fed, I don't know the details of how toxic of an asset they were willing to take as collateral, but they started loosening it up to pretty toxic assets.발음듣기
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So maybe you could get a loan.발음듣기
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But let's just put that aside right now.발음듣기
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But this is the situation we're facing.발음듣기
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You have a bank, and it's essentially being forced, or it perceives it, forced into bankruptcy.발음듣기
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Even though, it thinks that it has positive equity.발음듣기
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So you could get a loan from the Fed or someone else if they're willing to take this kind of toxic stuff as collateral.발음듣기
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Let's assume that they're not for now.발음듣기
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The other option is you can recapitalize.발음듣기
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You can get someone to invest in the firm.발음듣기
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You can sell equity in the firm and get some more cash to pay off this loan.발음듣기
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If you can convince someone that no, your firm is really in the future going to be worth a lot more.발음듣기
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This is just a stressful situation.발음듣기
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So you go to some sovereign wealth fund, and that's just a way of saying some foreign government that's been collecting dollars because they've been selling us oil or cheap manufactured goods.발음듣기
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So you go those and say, look, we are Goldman Brothers or we're Lehman Sachs.발음듣기
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We are this great brand in the banking industry, wouldn't you like to have a piece of this thing that represents American capitalism?발음듣기
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And they say sure, we'll be interested in investing.발음듣기
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So they say, well the market price is $1 and I think that's probably a little distressed, so we'll be willing to pay $1.50 per share.발음듣기
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And we'll buy, how much do you need?발음듣기
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We'll buy 2 billion shares at $1.50 per share.발음듣기
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So let's say the sovereign wealth fund, they're going to buy 2 billion shares at $1.50 per share.발음듣기
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So now what does the balance sheet look like?발음듣기
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So 2 billion, $1.50 per share, that is equal to $3 billion.발음듣기
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So now you get $3 billion more in cash, so this becomes $4 billion.발음듣기
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But you can't get something for free, so what happened?발음듣기
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Are our liabilities increasing?발음듣기
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Well no, our liabilities didn't increase.발음듣기
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They didn't give us a loan.발음듣기
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They invested in us.발음듣기
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They essentially bought shares of the company.발음듣기
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They bought 2 billion shares.발음듣기
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So how does that get accounted for?발음듣기
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Well instead of our share account being 500 million shares, this is how many shares we had before, the company essentially created 2 billion new shares.발음듣기
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So now the company has 2.5 billion shares.발음듣기
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And it's something interesting here.발음듣기
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What is the new book value of the shares?발음듣기
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So what are our total assets?발음듣기
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$4 billion plus $4 billion, it's $8 billion of assets.발음듣기
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Our liabilities are still $3 billion.발음듣기
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Now the value of our share after the investment, and you can kind of call this the post money valuation or book value, is $5 billion.발음듣기
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$8 billion minus $3 billion.발음듣기
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And now what's the book value of our shares?발음듣기
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$5 billion divided by $2.5 billion, it's $2 per share.발음듣기
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And that's interesting.발음듣기
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It's someplace in between our old book value and the price that the company paid, or the sovereign wealth fund paid, $1.50 per share.발음듣기
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But anyway, I just realized I'm out of time again, I'll continue this in the next video.발음듣기
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